Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T15:31:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

42
0x42eb…2bd5
world · 73 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$14 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$10 · open −$2
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$31
Realized−$10
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses31 / 40
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)71 / 73
History coverage519d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%
Chart Positions 2 History 71 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 61¢ 56¢ $33 $31 −$2 (-7%)
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? No 89¢ 81¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-9%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $30 +$3 +9%
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? Jun 11 $31 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 10 $30 $0 -1%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $3 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 06 $31 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $74 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $70 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 05 $30 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 03 $50 −$1 -2%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 02 $96 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 01 $88 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 31 $35 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? May 31 $31 $0 +1%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 31 $67 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $19 −$1 -4%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 28 $6 $0 +1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 25 $34 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 25 $20 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 25 $34 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? May 23 $30 +$1 +4%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 23 $62 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 23 $5 −$1 -31%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 21 $21 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 19 $31 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 17 $70 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 16 $65 $0 +0%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 16 $36 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 15 $2 $0 +4%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 15 $3 $0 +0%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 14 $33 $0 -1%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $38 $0 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 26 $100 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 25 $33 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 25 $33 $0 -0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $1 $0 +17%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $10 $0 -1%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $109 $0 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 23 $99 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 22 $32 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 22 $69 $0 +0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $36 $0 +0%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 20 $34 −$1 -2%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 19 $112 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Apr 18 $32 $0 +0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Apr 17 $36 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 16 $112 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $33 $0 +0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Apr 16 $6 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $74 $0 -0%
Will FC Cincinnati win the 2026 MLS Cup? Apr 15 $37 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 37% −$1
other 28% −$12
politics 18% $0
sports 12% $0
economics 4% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 61¢ $5 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 61¢ $27 1h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 84¢ $33 4h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 77¢ $20 7h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 77¢ $10 7h
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $1 28h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 70¢ $29 47h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 71¢ $30 2d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $3 3d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 3d
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $29 3d
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $31 3d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL No 79¢ $31 5d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY No 79¢ $31 5d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 19¢ $6 5d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 19¢ $6 6d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $34 6d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $34 6d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 80¢ $34 6d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 80¢ $34 6d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $34 6d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $33 6d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 69¢ $30 7d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 69¢ $12 7d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 69¢ $18 7d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 47¢ $19 9d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 49¢ $20 9d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $34 9d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $34 9d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $22 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-11.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +1.1% -8.6% 43% 0% -8.7%
≤30d 30 -2.9% -12.2% 47% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 69 -0.8% -10.2% 43% 3% -9.4%
all 71 -2.1% -11.5% 44% 3% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.5% 3% -9.8%
10% -19.9% 0% -18.4%
15% -27.7% 0% -26.3%
20% -34.8% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.96 · official $30.51 (match) · 322 history records