Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T15:34:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
42 0x42ef…035b crypto 177 markets active 1h ago coverage 149d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$200 (+0%) realized +$201 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate93%163W / 13L
Whale WR98%big bets
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$882per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1,192now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$9
14 days+$19
30 days+$38
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$195
world 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +0.1% -9.4% 90% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 40 +0.2% -9.3% 98% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 88 -1.0% -10.4% 94% 0% -9.4%
all 176 -0.4% -9.9% 93% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 0% -9.4%
10% -18.5% 0% -18.1%
15% -26.4% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.6% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 98% (≥$1,118) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×5.05 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×164.78 per $1 lost it wins $164.78
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

149d coverage
Net worth$1,192
Realized+$201
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)93%
Wins / losses163 / 13
Whale WR (big bets)98%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)176 / 177
History coverage149d
Avg bet$882
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 176 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on June 26? No 100¢ 100¢ $1,193 $1,192 −$1 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 25? Jun 25 $1,193 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on June 24? Jun 24 $118 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 24? Jun 24 $1,074 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on June 23? Jun 23 $25 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on June 23? Jun 23 $1,048 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 22? Jun 22 $1,187 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 21? Jun 21 $1,187 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 20? Jun 20 $1,186 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $1,185 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $1,184 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $10 on June 16? Jun 16 $79 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $1,000 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on June 16? Jun 16 $104 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $100 on June 15? Jun 15 $305 +$2 +1%
Will the price of Solana be above $30 on June 15? Jun 15 $795 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on June 13? Jun 13 $77 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $1,177 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $411 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.70 on June 11? Jun 11 $101 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.50 and $1.60 on June 11? Jun 11 $26 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be greater than $1.60 on June 11? Jun 11 $194 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 11? Jun 11 $142 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.60 on June 11? Jun 11 $301 +$2 +1%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.60 on June 10? Jun 10 $191 +$1 +1%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.70 on June 10? Jun 10 $358 +$1 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.50 on June 9? Jun 09 $320 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on June 8? Jun 08 $299 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,100 and $2,200 on June 7? Jun 07 $24 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,200 and $2,300 on June 7? Jun 07 $35 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on June 7? Jun 07 $399 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on June 7? Jun 07 $411 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on June 5? Jun 05 $220 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 5? Jun 05 $943 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on June 4? Jun 04 $1,162 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on June 3? Jun 03 $1,160 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on June 2? Jun 02 $1,158 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? Jun 01 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on June 1? Jun 01 $1,141 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on May 28? May 28 $1,146 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on May 26? May 26 $1,145 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 May 18-24? May 25 $1,144 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,600 and $2,700 on May 22? May 22 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on May 22? May 22 $1,133 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 20? May 20 $1,141 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,600 and $2,700 on May 19? May 19 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on May 19? May 19 $750 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 19? May 19 $386 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on May 18? May 18 $38 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,400 May 11-17? May 18 $1,099 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 15? May 15 $1,138 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $1,193 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 25? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,193 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 25? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,193 4h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 24? BUY No 100¢ $1,074 27h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $435 2d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $613 2d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on June 24? BUY No 100¢ $118 2d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $25 2d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $1,187 3d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $1,187 4d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $1,186 5d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $1,185 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $1,184 7d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $1,000 9d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $104 9d
Will the price of Solana be above $10 on June 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $79 11d
Will the price of Solana be above $30 on June 15? BUY Yes 100¢ $795 12d
Will the price of Solana be above $100 on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $156 12d
Will the price of Solana be above $100 on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $149 12d
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $77 12d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $1,177 13d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $142 14d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $411 14d
Will the price of XRP be between $1.50 and $1.60 on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $26 15d
Will the price of XRP be greater than $1.60 on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $194 15d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.70 on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $101 15d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.60 on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $14 16d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.60 on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $139 16d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.60 on June 11? BUY No 99¢ $149 16d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.60 on June 10? BUY No 99¢ $191 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,192.21 · official $1,192.21 (match) · 469 history records