Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T22:35:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
42 0x42ef…4acb sports 21 markets active 2h ago coverage 16d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$166 (-22%) realized −$160 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate53%10W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$24now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$96
7 days−$129
14 days−$141
30 days−$175
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 62% −$200
other 37% +$24
crypto 1% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-25.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -8.7% -17.4% 60% 60% -28.0%
≤30d 19 -17.6% -25.5% 53% 53% -31.7%
≤90d 19 -17.6% -25.5% 53% 53% -31.7%
all 19 -17.6% -25.5% 53% 53% -31.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.5% 53% -31.7%
10% -32.6% 53% -38.2%
15% -39.1% 47% -44.2%
20% -45.1% 16% -49.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 29% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -24% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -33% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$36 · ×0.42 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.47 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$24
Realized−$160
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses10 / 9
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)19 / 21
History coverage16d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 19 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Under 61¢ 48¢ $30 $24 −$6 (-20%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Switzerland O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $32 −$32 -100%
Czechia vs. South Africa: South Africa O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $55 −$53 -96%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Uzbekistan O/U 3.5 Corners Jun 18 $35 +$20 +57%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $88 −$75 -85%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 17 $64 +$24 +38%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $44 +$20 +46%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $30 +$14 +48%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $19 +$10 +55%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $47 −$28 -59%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $30 +$18 +60%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $22 +$8 +36%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $22 −$22 -100%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Qatar O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $61 −$61 -100%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $47 +$14 +29%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $33 +$14 +44%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $22 +$10 +47%
France vs. Northern Ireland: Both Teams to Score Jun 08 $23 −$23 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $29 −$28 -98%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 03 $10 −$5 -54%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 61¢ $30 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Switzerland O/U 2.5 BUY Under 72¢ $32 3h
Czechia vs. South Africa: South Africa O/U 0.5 SELL Under 13¢ $2 4h
Czechia vs. South Africa: South Africa O/U 0.5 BUY Under 42¢ $55 6h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Uzbekistan O/U 3.5 Corners BUY Under 63¢ $35 24h
Spread: England (-1.5) SELL Croatia 9¢ $7 24h
Spread: England (-1.5) SELL Croatia 13¢ $6 24h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY Croatia 68¢ $88 26h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) SELL DR Congo 100¢ $88 27h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY DR Congo 72¢ $64 30h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $44 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $44 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $30 2d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 64¢ $19 3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 27¢ $19 3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 64¢ $47 3d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 62¢ $30 4d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $30 4d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 73¢ $22 4d
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score BUY No 73¢ $22 4d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? AN BUY 33¢ $22 5d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Qatar O/U 0.5 BUY Under 62¢ $61 5d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 77¢ $47 6d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY No 69¢ $33 6d
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score SELL No 94¢ $32 7d
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score BUY No 63¢ $22 8d
France vs. Northern Ireland: Both Teams to Score BUY No 61¢ $23 10d
Will France win on 2026-06-04? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 14d
Will France win on 2026-06-04? BUY Yes 77¢ $29 14d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $5 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $23.57 · official $23.57 (match) · 47 history records