Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T19:09:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
42 0x42f0…fc65 world 45 markets active 2h ago coverage 165d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL −$1,045 (-17%) realized −$120 · open −$925
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate20%8W / 32L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$140per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$1,585now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 54% +$587
other 38% −$1,218
finance 8% −$495
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-19.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 1 +464.1% +410.3% 100% 100% +410.3%
all 40 -11.4% -19.9% 20% 18% -14.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.9% 18% -14.7%
10% -27.5% 18% -22.8%
15% -34.5% 18% -30.3%
20% -40.9% 18% -37.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 70% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +464% too few recent
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -20% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
7.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$291 vs −$79 · ×3.68 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

165d coverage
Net worth$1,585
Realized−$120
Unrealized−$925
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses8 / 32
Open positions5
Markets (closed)40 / 45
History coverage165d
Avg bet$140
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 40 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 66¢ 39¢ $1,912 $1,138 −$774 (-41%)
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 49¢ 34¢ $472 $332 −$140 (-30%)
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? No 84¢ 92¢ $39 $43 +$4 (+10%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 90¢ 95¢ $40 $42 +$2 (+5%)
Russia x Ukraine Peace Parlay Yes 24¢ 16¢ $47 $30 −$17 (-35%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 25 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? May 17 $255 +$1,182 +464%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? Mar 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Netanyahu tweet again by Saturday? Mar 14 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Mar 13 $141 +$12 +9%
Will Israel strike Gaza on March 7, 2026? Mar 10 $46 +$265 +578%
Will Israel strike Gaza on March 6, 2026? Mar 09 $36 −$35 -96%
Will Israel strike Gaza on March 8, 2026? Mar 09 $80 +$260 +324%
Will Israel strike Gaza on March 9, 2026? Mar 09 $85 −$85 -100%
Will Alireza Arafi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 08 $100 −$100 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Mar 08 $163 −$52 -32%
Will Hassan Khomeini be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 07 $48 −$48 -100%
Will Hassan Rouhani be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 07 $46 −$46 -100%
Will the position of Supreme Leader of Iran be abolished? Mar 07 $48 −$48 -100%
Will a Gulf State strike Iran by March 7? Mar 06 $120 −$120 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15? Mar 06 $181 −$32 -17%
US-Iran nuclear deal by March 31? Mar 06 $32 −$32 -100%
Will Jordan strike Iran by March 31? Mar 05 $46 −$26 -56%
Will France strike Iran by March 31? Mar 05 $47 −$25 -53%
Will Mohsen Araki be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 05 $58 −$47 -80%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Mar 05 $52 −$21 -41%
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 05 $167 −$14 -8%
Will there be between 14 and 17 US strikes on Somalia in February 2026 Mar 03 $45 −$45 -100%
Will Navid Shomali be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 03 $33 −$33 -100%
US forces enter Iran by March 14? Mar 01 $44 −$44 -100%
Will Israel strike Gaza on March 3, 2026? Mar 01 $100 −$100 -100%
Will the US strike Iran next? Mar 01 $39 −$39 -100%
Will Israel strike Gaza on March 2, 2026? Mar 01 $129 −$129 -100%
Will the US strike Somalia next? Mar 01 $115 −$115 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? Feb 28 $199 −$199 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Feb 28 $10 +$49 +488%
Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026? Feb 28 $100 +$456 +456%
Will Israel strike Gaza on March 1, 2026? Feb 28 $61 −$61 -100%
Will Israel strike Gaza on March 5, 2026? Feb 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Israel strike Gaza on February 26, 2026? Feb 26 $100 +$95 +95%
US strikes Iran by February 25, 2026? Feb 24 $10 −$10 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 24, 2026? Feb 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Feb 22 $20 +$13 +65%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on January 20? Jan 19 $495 −$495 -100%
Will the US strike Somalia next? Jan 18 $256 −$256 -100%
Will the US strike Iran next? Jan 13 $220 −$220 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap BUY Yes 38¢ $116 1h
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap BUY Yes 37¢ $18 1h
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap BUY Yes 37¢ $150 1h
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap BUY Yes 36¢ $139 1h
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap BUY Yes 35¢ $36 1h
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap BUY Yes 34¢ $3 1h
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap BUY Yes 34¢ $31 1h
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap BUY Yes 85¢ $31 40d
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap BUY Yes 90¢ $1,406 41d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $15 102d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 45¢ $154 104d
Will Netanyahu tweet again by Saturday? BUY Yes 19¢ $26 104d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 48¢ $19 105d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 52¢ $299 105d
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes 33¢ $153 106d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 84¢ $39 109d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 90¢ $40 109d
Will Israel strike Gaza on March 6, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 110d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $51 110d
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY Yes 30¢ $14 110d
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY Yes 29¢ $4 110d
Will Israel strike Gaza on March 9, 2026? BUY Yes 37¢ $12 110d
Will Israel strike Gaza on March 9, 2026? BUY Yes 37¢ $10 110d
Will Israel strike Gaza on March 9, 2026? BUY Yes 36¢ $21 110d
Will Israel strike Gaza on March 9, 2026? BUY Yes 35¢ $18 110d
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY Yes 30¢ $17 110d
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 110d
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY Yes 29¢ $58 110d
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY Yes 29¢ $9 110d
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY Yes 29¢ $2 110d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,584.78 · official $1,584.87 (match) · 457 history records