Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T22:57:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
42 0x42f1…f53f other 12 markets active 1h ago coverage 7d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$918 (+19%) realized +$911 · open +$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate30%3W / 7L
Drawdown41%max
Avg bet$396per market
Trades / day3.8pace
Fees−$15est.
Kalshi-fit42%portable
Net worth$1,007now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$44
7 days+$669
14 days+$773
30 days+$773
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 70% +$897
sports 22% −$14
world 4% −$207
crypto 3% +$104
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-17.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -17.7% -25.5% 22% 22% +7.4%
≤30d 10 -9.1% -17.7% 30% 30% +9.3%
≤90d 10 -9.1% -17.7% 30% 30% +9.3%
all 10 -9.1% -17.7% 30% 30% +9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.7% 30% +9.3%
10% -25.6% 30% -1.2%
15% -32.8% 30% -10.7%
20% -39.4% 30% -19.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 95% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +21% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt +21% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$741 vs −$207 · ×3.58 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.53 per $1 lost it wins $1.53
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$1,007
Realized+$911
Unrealized+$7
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses3 / 7
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions2
Markets (closed)10 / 12
History coverage7d
Avg bet$396
Trades / day3.8
Drawdown41%
Kalshi-fit42%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: England (-2.5) Panama 56¢ 83¢ $500 $741 +$241 (+48%)
Panama vs. England: O/U 2.5 Over 48¢ 26¢ $500 $266 −$234 (-47%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $823 −$44 -5%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $513 −$499 -97%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $720 +$1,088 +151%
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Ghana? Jun 24 $516 −$516 -100%
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 2 Algeria? Jun 23 $515 +$1,030 +200%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 0 IR Iran? Jun 23 $207 −$207 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 23 $154 −$154 -100%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 23 $21 −$21 -100%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Austria? Jun 22 $104 −$8 -8%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $151 +$104 +69%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Panama vs. England: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $513 1h
Spread: England (-2.5) BUY Panama 56¢ $512 2h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 38¢ $779 46h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 38¢ $206 47h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 38¢ $617 47h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 1¢ $14 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 44¢ $513 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 38¢ $206 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 39¢ $514 3d
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Ghana? BUY Yes 25¢ $516 4d
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 2 Algeria? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,545 4d
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 2 Algeria? BUY Yes 32¢ $515 4d
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Austria? SELL Yes 14¢ $5 5d
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Austria? SELL Yes 14¢ $5 5d
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Austria? SELL Yes 13¢ $5 5d
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Austria? SELL Yes 13¢ $5 5d
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Austria? SELL Yes 13¢ $6 5d
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Austria? SELL Yes 12¢ $8 5d
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Austria? SELL Yes 12¢ $10 5d
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Austria? SELL Yes 12¢ $14 5d
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Austria? SELL Yes 11¢ $17 5d
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Austria? SELL Yes 11¢ $22 5d
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Austria? BUY Yes 12¢ $104 5d
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 0 IR Iran? BUY Yes 16¢ $207 6d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 45¢ $154 7d
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $21 7d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $151 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,006.70 · official $1,006.70 (match) · 33 history records