Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T16:11:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

42
0x42f8…f96f
sports · 126 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$1,351 -10%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$1,351 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFresh edge
Net worth$118
Realized−$1,351
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses48 / 76
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$97
Open positions2
Markets (closed)124 / 126
History coverage88d
Avg bet$103
Trades / day7.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%
Chart Positions 2 History 124 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$44
7 days+$7
14 days−$238
30 days−$169
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Under 82¢ 81¢ $98 $97 −$1 (-1%)
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Sri Lanka Sri Lanka 12¢ 12¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $160 −$44 -28%
NBA Finals: Will there be a Breen Bang in Game 3? Jun 09 $39 +$7 +17%
Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 11.5 Jun 09 $53 +$36 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 7? Jun 08 $15 −$15 -100%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 08 $67 −$67 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 08 $130 −$11 -8%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $45 +$83 +184%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 4.5 Jun 07 $16 +$14 +85%
Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 11.5 Jun 06 $109 +$5 +5%
Will New Zealand win? Jun 04 $41 −$12 -28%
Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 12.5 Jun 04 $68 −$68 -100%
Donovan Mitchell: Points O/U 27.5 Jun 01 $0 $0 -100%
Will Vanraure Hachinohe FC vs. Tochigi SC end in a draw? Jun 01 $38 −$38 -100%
Evan Mobley: Rebounds O/U 8.5 Jun 01 $24 −$24 -100%
Jalen Brunson: Assists O/U 6.5 Jun 01 $62 −$62 -100%
Colorado Rockies vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 01 $92 −$42 -45%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in May? May 28 $103 +$85 +82%
Evan Mobley: Points O/U 15.5 May 24 $4 +$14 +354%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers: 1H O/U 110.5 May 24 $53 −$53 -100%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 24 $29 −$1 -2%
Will Deportivo Alavés vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid end in a draw? May 23 $56 −$44 -78%
Donovan Mitchell: Points O/U 26.5 May 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Gujarat Titans May 23 $35 −$35 -100%
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Punjab Kings May 23 $49 +$46 +94%
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Royal Challengers Bengaluru May 17 $439 −$17 -4%
T20 2nd Innings 6 Overs Line: O/U 80.5 May 17 $12 +$72 +620%
Washington Mystics vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 169.5 May 16 $1 +$3 +449%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 16 $18 −$18 -100%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Sunrisers Hyderabad May 16 $65 −$65 -100%
New York Liberty vs. PortlandFire: O/U 174.5 May 15 $48 +$52 +108%
New York Liberty vs. Portland Fire May 15 $3 +$1 +47%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 207.5 May 14 $97 +$28 +29%
Thunder vs. Lakers: O/U 213.5 May 12 $31 +$30 +98%
Will "Stranger Things: Tales From '85" be the top US Netflix show this May 03 $0 $0 -100%
Will "Roommates" be the #2 global Netflix movie this week? May 03 $2 −$2 -100%
Will "BEEF: Season 2" be the top US Netflix show this week? May 03 $5 −$5 -100%
Will "Raw: 2026 - April 20, 2026" be the top US Netflix show this week May 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Will "180" be the #2 global Netflix movie this week? May 03 $3 −$3 -100%
Thunder vs. Suns May 03 $26 −$26 -100%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Milwaukee Brewers May 03 $33 −$33 -100%
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Mumbai Indians May 03 $52 −$52 -100%
Will "Running Point: Season 2" be the top US Netflix show this week? May 03 $12 −$12 -100%
Pistons vs. Magic May 03 $46 −$46 -100%
San Francisco Giants vs. Philadelphia Phillies Apr 30 $9 +$21 +245%
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Punjab Kings Apr 27 $643 −$552 -86%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Sri Lanka, Women: Bangladesh vs Sri Lanka Apr 27 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C or higher on April 25? Apr 27 $1,154 −$1,154 -100%
Will "Running Point: Season 2" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? Apr 27 $8 $0 +1%
Will Elche CF win on 2026-04-26? Apr 26 $13 +$3 +21%
Hawks vs. Knicks Apr 21 $35 +$217 +619%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 66% −$772
weather 22% −$591
crypto 9% +$201
other 1% −$127
world 1% −$11
politics 0% −$29
tech 0% −$18
culture 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 82¢ $98 1h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Sri Lanka BUY Sri Lanka 12¢ $20 1h
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Knicks 19¢ $116 36h
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 22¢ $46 38h
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 25¢ $11 38h
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 25¢ $39 38h
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 32¢ $64 38h
NBA Finals: Will there be a Breen Bang in Game 3? SELL Yes 76¢ $4 3d
NBA Finals: Will there be a Breen Bang in Game 3? SELL Yes 76¢ $13 3d
NBA Finals: Will there be a Breen Bang in Game 3? BUY Yes 76¢ $5 3d
NBA Finals: Will there be a Breen Bang in Game 3? BUY Yes 76¢ $35 3d
Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 11.5 BUY No 59¢ $53 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 44¢ $119 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY Yes 48¢ $6 4d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY Yes 48¢ $10 4d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY Yes 48¢ $39 4d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY Yes 48¢ $75 4d
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev SELL Flavio Cobolli 20¢ $55 5d
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev SELL Flavio Cobolli 26¢ $73 5d
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev BUY Flavio Cobolli $15 5d
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev BUY Flavio Cobolli $0 5d
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev BUY Flavio Cobolli $0 5d
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev BUY Flavio Cobolli $0 5d
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev BUY Flavio Cobolli $2 5d
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev BUY Flavio Cobolli $0 5d
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev BUY Flavio Cobolli $26 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 7? BUY Down $15 5d
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs BUY BetBoom Team $7 5d
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs BUY BetBoom Team 27¢ $28 5d
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs BUY BetBoom Team 31¢ $33 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-2.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +13.6% +2.8% 56% 44% -8.5%
≤30d 32 +23.4% +11.6% 41% 38% -17.3%
≤90d 124 +8.1% -2.2% 39% 33% -19.0%
all 124 +8.1% -2.2% 39% 33% -19.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover7.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.2% 33% -19.0%
10% -11.5% 30% -26.8%
15% -20.1% 26% -33.9%
20% -27.9% 23% -40.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $117.75 · official $117.76 (match) · 706 history records