Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T02:40:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0

score

42 0x42fe…1944 crypto 8 markets active 3h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover

Total PnL +$4 (+10%) realized +$8 · open −$4

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +15% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip

Net edge-4%after slip

Net WR40%break-even

Win rate40%2W / 3L

Drawdown80%max

Avg bet$5per market

Trades / day12.0pace

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$12now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +40%

net ROI/market (all)+4.0%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	5	+15.0%	+4.0%	40%	40%	-3.1%
≤30d	5	+15.0%	+4.0%	40%	40%	-3.1%
≤90d	5	+15.0%	+4.0%	40%	40%	-3.1%
all	5	+15.0%	+4.0%	40%	40%	-3.1%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover12.0 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to5%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+4.0%	40%	-3.1%
10%	-5.9%	20%	-12.4%
15%	-15.0%	20%	-20.8%
20%	-23.4%	20%	-28.6%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 88% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +7% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +15% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$5 vs −$3 · ×1.82 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×1.21 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$12

Realized+$8

Unrealized−$4

Win rate (resolved)40%

Wins / losses2 / 3

Open positions3

Markets (closed)5 / 8

History coverage1d

Avg bet$5

Trades / day12.0

Drawdown80%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 3 History 5 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June?	Yes	41¢	38¢	$10	$9	−$1 (-6%)
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 16?	Up	17¢	6¢	$5	$2	−$3 (-62%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in June?	Yes	24¢	24¢	$1	$1	−$0 (-2%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET	Jun 15	$1	−$1	-95%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June?	Jun 15	$11	−$4	-40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET	Jun 15	$6	+$1	+19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET	Jun 15	$2	−$2	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET	Jun 15	$3	+$8	+296%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in June?	BUY Yes	24¢	$1	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET	BUY Down	29¢	$1	3h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 16?	BUY Up	17¢	$5	3h
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June?	BUY Yes	41¢	$10	3h
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June?	SELL Yes	0¢	$6	3h
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June?	BUY Yes	0¢	$11	3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET	BUY Up	83¢	$6	3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET	BUY Up	13¢	$1	3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET	BUY Up	13¢	$0	3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET	BUY Up	13¢	$1	3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET	BUY Up	13¢	$0	3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET	BUY Up	24¢	$3	4h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12.28 · official $12.28 (match) · 15 history records