Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T14:37:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
42 0x42ff…1417 sports 44 markets active 1h ago coverage 455d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$1,973 (+15%) realized +$2,434 · open −$461
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate49%21W / 22L
Whale WR38%big bets
Drawdown13%max
Avg bet$295per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$65est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$995now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$657
7 days+$657
14 days+$657
30 days+$782
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 70% +$1,457
other 15% −$1
crypto 15% −$3
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-8.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +62.1% +46.7% 100% 100% +46.7%
≤30d 3 -7.8% -16.6% 67% 67% +8.5%
≤90d 4 +14.8% +3.9% 75% 75% +23.4%
all 43 +0.9% -8.7% 49% 26% +5.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.7% 26% +5.5%
10% -17.4% 21% -4.6%
15% -25.4% 21% -13.8%
20% -32.7% 21% -22.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 76% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +36% too few recent
Fragile wins
48% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 38% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +13% → late -11% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$113 vs −$23 · ×4.87 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.11 per $1 lost it wins $5.11
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

455d coverage
Net worth$995
Realized+$2,434
Unrealized−$461
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses21 / 22
Whale WR (big bets)38%
Est. fees paid−$65
Open positions1
Markets (closed)43 / 44
History coverage455d
Avg bet$295
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown13%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 43 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Under 58¢ 40¢ $1,456 $995 −$461 (-32%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $1,057 +$657 +62%
Counter-Strike: THUNDER dOWNUNDER vs FlyQuest (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 04 $2,619 +$381 +14%
Counter-Strike: THUNDER dOWNUNDER vs FlyQuest - Map 2 Winner Jun 04 $259 −$255 -99%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Mumbai Indians Apr 21 $1,404 +$1,160 +83%
Pepe ETF in 2025? Jan 18 $5 +$1 +11%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 18 $7 $0 +1%
Stars vs. Devils Dec 04 $50 +$50 +100%
Wild vs. Jets Dec 03 $2 +$3 +122%
Monad market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? Dec 03 $11 $0 +0%
Flyers vs. Lightning Dec 03 $17 +$11 +64%
Vikings vs. Packers Nov 23 $97 −$97 -100%
Flames vs. Canucks Nov 23 $11 −$11 -100%
Hellenic Championship: Alexandre Muller vs Lorenzo Musetti Nov 06 $18 −$18 -100%
Hellenic Championship: Novak Djokovic vs Nuno Borges Nov 06 $28 −$28 -100%
Hellenic Championship: Alexandre Muller vs Tomas Etcheverry Nov 06 $6 +$9 +144%
Timberwolves vs. Knicks Nov 06 $13 +$8 +61%
Nets vs. Pacers Nov 05 $3 $0 +0%
Hellenic Championship: Stan Wawrinka vs Lorenzo Musetti Nov 05 $38 −$38 -100%
WTA Finals, Serena Williams Group: Iga Swiatek vs Amanda Anisimova Nov 05 $9 −$9 -100%
Rockets vs. Grizzlies Nov 05 $3 −$3 -100%
US national Bitcoin reserve in 2025? Oct 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $2400 in September? Oct 08 $13 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $6000 in May? Jun 08 $7 $0 +0%
Athletics vs. Dodgers May 18 $9 +$5 +52%
Will XRP reach $3.50 in April? May 15 $5 $0 +2%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.50 in April? May 15 $6 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $40k in April? May 15 $10 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200k in April? Apr 13 $1,713 −$2 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2025? Apr 13 $1,198 −$1 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Apr 13 $518 −$1 -0%
Thunder vs. Rockets Apr 07 $43 +$96 +223%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by March 31? Apr 04 $9 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.40 in March? Apr 04 $14 $0 +0%
Will SBF launch a coin before April? Apr 04 $28 $0 +0%
Will Olaf Scholz be the next Chancellor of Germany? Mar 25 $5 $0 -0%
Will Romuald Starosielec be the next President of Poland? Mar 25 $14 $0 -0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 22 $231 $0 -0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.60 in March? Mar 22 $23 $0 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 22 $512 −$1 -0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the Western Conference? Mar 21 $243 $0 -0%
Will Sevilla FC win La Liga? Mar 21 $500 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by March 31? Mar 21 $99 $0 +0%
Chelsea wins the Premier League? Mar 21 $645 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 58¢ $612 1h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 58¢ $17 1h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 58¢ $8 1h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 58¢ $170 1h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $6 1h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $17 1h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 58¢ $26 1h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 58¢ $35 1h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 58¢ $24 1h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 58¢ $15 1h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 58¢ $75 1h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 58¢ $235 2h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $6 2h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $228 2h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner SELL Aurora Gaming 100¢ $257 22h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 60¢ $39 23h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 61¢ $247 23h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 61¢ $216 23h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 61¢ $555 23h
Counter-Strike: THUNDER dOWNUNDER vs FlyQuest (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY FlyQuest 87¢ $64 15d
Counter-Strike: THUNDER dOWNUNDER vs FlyQuest (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY FlyQuest 87¢ $2,183 15d
Counter-Strike: THUNDER dOWNUNDER vs FlyQuest (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY FlyQuest 87¢ $5 15d
Counter-Strike: THUNDER dOWNUNDER vs FlyQuest - Map 2 Winner BUY THUNDER dOWNUNDER 36¢ $2 15d
Counter-Strike: THUNDER dOWNUNDER vs FlyQuest (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY FlyQuest 86¢ $97 15d
Counter-Strike: THUNDER dOWNUNDER vs FlyQuest (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY FlyQuest 87¢ $10 15d
Counter-Strike: THUNDER dOWNUNDER vs FlyQuest (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY FlyQuest 87¢ $260 15d
Counter-Strike: THUNDER dOWNUNDER vs FlyQuest - Map 2 Winner BUY THUNDER dOWNUNDER 36¢ $2 15d
Counter-Strike: THUNDER dOWNUNDER vs FlyQuest - Map 2 Winner BUY THUNDER dOWNUNDER 36¢ $2 15d
Counter-Strike: THUNDER dOWNUNDER vs FlyQuest - Map 2 Winner BUY THUNDER dOWNUNDER 36¢ $3 15d
Counter-Strike: THUNDER dOWNUNDER vs FlyQuest - Map 2 Winner BUY THUNDER dOWNUNDER 36¢ $70 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $994.56 · official $994.56 (match) · 113 history records