Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T18:41:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
43 0x4300…5c69 other 633 markets active 1h ago coverage 189d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$3,973 (+6%) realized +$3,966 · open +$7
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate46%290W / 340L
Drawdown77%max
Avg bet$101per market
Trades / day7.4pace
Fees−$62est.
Kalshi-fit24%portable
Net worth$205now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$149
7 days+$891
14 days+$1,727
30 days+$1,293
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 78% +$3,823
sports 21% +$731
world 1% +$179
finance 1% −$339
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-3.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 +69.3% +53.2% 60% 60% +37.9%
≤30d 46 +36.4% +23.4% 52% 52% +19.1%
≤90d 61 +5.7% -4.4% 41% 41% -24.6%
all 630 +6.8% -3.4% 46% 46% -3.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.4% 46% -3.3%
10% -12.6% 46% -12.5%
15% -21.1% 46% -21.0%
20% -28.8% 45% -28.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +11% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$124 vs −$93 · ×1.34 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.14 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

189d coverage
Net worth$205
Realized+$3,966
Unrealized+$7
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses290 / 340
Est. fees paid−$62
Open positions2
Markets (closed)630 / 633
History coverage189d
Avg bet$101
Trades / day7.4
Drawdown77%
Kalshi-fit24%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 630 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Germany 47¢ 50¢ $141 $148 +$8 (+5%)
South Africa vs. Canada: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Under 38¢ 38¢ $57 $56 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 184 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $75 +$125 +165%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 27 $38 −$38 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $124 −$122 -98%
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) Jun 27 $112 +$88 +79%
Spread: Senegal (-2.5) Jun 26 $54 +$96 +180%
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 3.5 AND Will United States win on 2026- Jun 26 $50 +$183 +365%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? AND Japan Jun 26 $51 +$167 +327%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $147 +$153 +104%
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 2.5 AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $51 +$94 +184%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $95 +$155 +163%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 25 $129 +$121 +93%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $81 +$119 +146%
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) Jun 23 $83 −$82 -98%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 23 $89 −$88 -98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $69 +$81 +119%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $100 −$100 -100%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 22 $122 −$122 -100%
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) Jun 22 $94 +$156 +165%
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) Jun 22 $94 −$92 -98%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $46 −$2 -4%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 21 $34 +$66 +197%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 21 $186 +$264 +142%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 20 $107 −$105 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $70 −$69 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $119 +$81 +67%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 19 $98 −$96 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $33 −$32 -98%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 18 $94 +$156 +165%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $105 −$104 -99%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $73 −$73 -100%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $107 +$143 +134%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $98 +$202 +206%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $109 −$108 -99%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $93 +$107 +114%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $77 +$123 +158%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $53 +$87 +165%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $128 +$172 +134%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $92 +$108 +117%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 15 $104 −$102 -98%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $75 −$74 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $107 +$93 +86%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $116 −$114 -98%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 14 $33 −$32 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $117 −$116 -99%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $109 −$108 -99%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $65 −$64 -98%
Will Marvell Tech (MRVL) beat quarterly earnings? May 27 $29 −$29 -99%
Spread: Chelsea FC (-1.5) May 04 $179 −$176 -98%
Will Eintracht Braunschweig win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Vissel Kōbe win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $87 −$87 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
South Africa vs. Canada: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 38¢ $58 1h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 47¢ $143 9h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 37¢ $75 15h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 25¢ $38 33h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 49¢ $124 33h
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) BUY Belgium 56¢ $36 39h
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) BUY Belgium 56¢ $10 39h
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) BUY Belgium 56¢ $15 39h
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) BUY Belgium 56¢ $17 39h
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) BUY Belgium 56¢ $34 39h
Spread: Senegal (-2.5) BUY Senegal 35¢ $54 2d
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 3.5 AND Will United States win on 2026- BUY 21¢ $50 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 49¢ $147 3d
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? AND Japan BUY 23¢ $51 3d
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 2.5 AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY 35¢ $51 3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 38¢ $95 4d
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Brazil 51¢ $129 4d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 40¢ $81 4d
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) AND Colombia vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 0.5 BUY 31¢ $51 4d
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) BUY Croatia 41¢ $83 5d
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 35¢ $89 5d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 32¢ $32 6d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 45¢ $69 6d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 34¢ $68 6d
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) BUY Algeria 37¢ $94 6d
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) BUY Egypt 37¢ $94 6d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? SELL No 37¢ $44 6d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 38¢ $46 6d
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 40¢ $122 7d
Spread: Spain (-3.5) BUY Spain 33¢ $34 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $204.75 · official $204.75 (match) · 1815 history records