Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T19:54:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

43
0x4300…794f
world · 76 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$4 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$4 · open +$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$42
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses30 / 42
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions4
Markets (closed)72 / 76
History coverage481d
Avg bet$46
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%
Chart Positions 4 History 72 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days+$4
14 days+$1
30 days+$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Yes 82¢ 84¢ $41 $41 +$1 (+2%)
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 98¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+2%)
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? No 45¢ 42¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-7%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 11¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+46%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $43 +$3 +6%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $30 +$1 +3%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 12 $3 −$1 -29%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 12 $100 +$1 +1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 10 $32 +$1 +2%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 10 $42 $0 +0%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 08 $3 $0 +6%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $139 −$1 -1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $106 −$4 -4%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $21 +$2 +8%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 01 $35 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 31 $43 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 30 $41 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 29 $41 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 28 $45 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 28 $76 −$1 -1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 28 $136 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 26 $125 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 25 $41 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 25 $44 +$1 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 24 $49 +$3 +5%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 24 $4 $0 +3%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 23 $3 $0 -1%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 21 $41 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 21 $4 +$2 +49%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? May 20 $8 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 18 $30 $0 -1%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? May 17 $113 $0 +0%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 17 $36 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 16 $39 $0 +0%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 15 $35 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $254 $0 -0%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $13 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 25 $77 $0 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 24 $77 $0 +0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 22 $41 $0 -0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $36 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Apr 22 $40 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $36 $0 -0%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15? Apr 21 $1 −$1 -89%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 21 $2 $0 +2%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 21 $37 $0 -0%
Will Richard Van De Water win The Bachelorette Season 22? Apr 20 $41 −$1 -3%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 19 $39 $0 +0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 19 $80 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 18 $38 $0 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 18 $9 $0 +1%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $2 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $41 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 17 $5 $0 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 47% +$7
other 21% −$1
politics 14% +$4
sports 13% −$12
economics 2% $0
finance 2% −$1
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 82¢ $12 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 82¢ $4 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 82¢ $24 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 83¢ $21 5h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 83¢ $21 5h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $41 21h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $41 23h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 84¢ $45 25h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 79¢ $43 29h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 37¢ $6 35h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 37¢ $25 35h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 36¢ $6 38h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 36¢ $24 38h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 83¢ $34 43h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 84¢ $24 44h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 84¢ $11 44h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 5¢ $2 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 7¢ $3 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 46¢ $37 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 45¢ $8 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 45¢ $26 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 45¢ $2 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 24¢ $7 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 24¢ $7 4d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 37¢ $3 4d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 39¢ $30 4d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY Yes 38¢ $8 4d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY Yes 38¢ $24 4d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $42 4d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $42 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-11.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -1.3% -10.7% 62% 0% -8.7%
≤30d 30 +1.7% -8.0% 47% 3% -9.1%
≤90d 68 -0.4% -9.9% 43% 1% -9.3%
all 72 -2.6% -11.9% 42% 3% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.9% 3% -9.6%
10% -20.3% 3% -18.3%
15% -28.0% 3% -26.2%
20% -35.1% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $42.13 · official $41.42 (match) · 347 history records