Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:25:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
43 0x4300…f06c politics 119 markets active 3d ago coverage 110d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$84 (-0%) realized −$84 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate9%11W / 107L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$259per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$37now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$2
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% −$14
politics 41% −$16
sports 4% −$55
crypto 3% −$1
world 2% −$1
economics 2% $0
tech 1% $0
finance 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-13.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 19 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 110 -5.5% -14.5% 7% 3% -9.8%
all 118 -4.9% -13.9% 9% 5% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.9% 5% -9.8%
10% -22.2% 2% -18.4%
15% -29.7% 2% -26.3%
20% -36.6% 1% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 66% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
45% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -10% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$2 · ×4.82 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.5 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

110d coverage
Net worth$37
Realized−$84
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses11 / 107
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)118 / 119
History coverage110d
Avg bet$259
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 118 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $37 $37 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $276 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $21 $0 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $34 $0 -0%
Will Lucy Powell be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 Jun 11 $37 $0 -0%
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 09 $33 $0 -0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 08 $255 $0 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 08 $802 −$1 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $241 $0 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 06 $22 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 31 $36 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? May 30 $231 $0 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 28 $233 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 26 $226 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 25 $262 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 25 $489 $0 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? May 23 $421 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $266 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 20 $213 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 18 $261 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 17 $434 −$1 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 16 $242 $0 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 12 $230 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 11 $197 $0 -0%
Will Hong Ihk-pyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 10 $266 $0 -0%
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? May 09 $198 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 07 $592 −$1 -0%
Will Butch Ware win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 06 $229 $0 -0%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 06 $204 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April? May 06 $36 $0 +0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? May 03 $216 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 03 $211 $0 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 02 $242 $0 -0%
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $225 $0 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? May 02 $65 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? May 02 $691 −$1 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 01 $164 $0 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? May 01 $698 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 30 $726 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 27 $478 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $668 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 27 $277 $0 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $249 $0 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $794 −$1 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 21 $490 $0 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 20 $418 $0 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 20 $235 −$1 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 19 $221 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 19 $229 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 19 $511 −$1 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 18 $199 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $37 2d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $41 3d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $41 3d
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $21 3d
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $21 3d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $34 5d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $34 6d
Will Lucy Powell be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 SELL No 100¢ $37 6d
Will Lucy Powell be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 BUY No 100¢ $37 6d
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $33 7d
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $33 8d
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $41 9d
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $41 9d
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $44 9d
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $44 10d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $25 10d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $25 10d
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $22 11d
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $22 11d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $36 17d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $36 17d
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $231 18d
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $231 20d
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $233 20d
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $233 20d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $226 22d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $226 23d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $262 23d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $262 23d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $242 23d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36.98 · official $36.98 (match) · 350 history records