Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T14:32:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
43 0x4302…b736 sports 1219 markets active 1h ago coverage 1072d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$1,114 (+1%) realized +$1,112 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate96%1165W / 49L
Whale WR99%big bets
Drawdown9%max
Avg bet$166per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$3,659now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$20
7 days+$112
14 days+$181
30 days+$226
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 62% +$113
other 37% +$171
crypto 1% +$828
culture 0% +$5
tech 0% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 316 -0.0% -9.5% 99% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 1039 -0.9% -10.3% 97% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 1196 -0.8% -10.3% 96% 1% -9.4%
all 1214 +0.5% -9.1% 96% 2% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.1% 2% -9.0%
10% -17.8% 1% -17.7%
15% -25.7% 1% -25.7%
20% -33.0% 1% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 99% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +3% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$7 · ×0.17 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×4.83 per $1 lost it wins $4.83
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1072d coverage
Net worth$3,659
Realized+$1,112
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)96%
Wins / losses1165 / 49
Whale WR (big bets)99%
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions5
Markets (closed)1214 / 1219
History coverage1072d
Avg bet$166
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown9%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 1214 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Gentle Mates (-3.5) vs KOLESIE (+3.5) Gentle Mates 100¢ 100¢ $2,578 $2,580 +$1 (+0%)
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Over 100¢ 100¢ $999 $1,000 +$0 (+0%)
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Walczaki (-3.5) vs TDK (+3.5) TDK 100¢ 100¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+0%)
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 Under 100¢ 100¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-0%)
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Gentle Mates (-6.5) vs KOLESIE (+6.5) KOLESIE 100¢ 100¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 2? Jun 18 $55 $0 +0%
Total Kills Over/Under 55.5 in Game 2? Jun 18 $55 $0 +0%
Total Kills Over/Under 60.5 in Game 2? Jun 18 $5 $0 +0%
Total Kills Over/Under 45.5 in Game 1? Jun 17 $20 $0 +0%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 Jun 17 $20 $0 +0%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 17 $15 $0 +0%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: MIBR Academy (-3.5) vs F4TALITY (+3.5) Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Pigeons (-2.5) vs Alliance Guardians (+2.5) Jun 17 $45 $0 +0%
Total Kills Over/Under 70.5 in Game 2? Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
Total Kills Over/Under 60.5 in Game 2? Jun 17 $10 $0 +0%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 17 $1,978 +$2 +0%
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: KOLESIE (-3.5) vs illwill (+3.5) Jun 17 $764 +$1 +0%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 17 $20 $0 +0%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: BESTIA (-2.5) vs KRÜ Spark (+2.5) Jun 17 $250 $0 +0%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: KOLESIE (-3.5) vs illwill (+3.5) Jun 17 $285 $0 +0%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: SPARTA (-3.5) vs INOX Division (+3.5) Jun 17 $35 $0 +0%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 Jun 17 $250 $0 +0%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Sharper Esport (-3.5) vs Fancy United (+3.5) Jun 17 $250 $0 +0%
Map Handicap: DK (-1.5) vs So:sweet (+1.5) Jun 17 $17 $0 +0%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 17 $4,276 +$4 +0%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Dplus (-2.5) vs So:sweet (+2.5) Jun 17 $30 $0 +0%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Dplus (-2.5) vs So:sweet (+2.5) Jun 17 $30 $0 +0%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 17 $279 +$1 +0%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Nuclear TigeRES (-9.5) vs K27 (+9.5) Jun 17 $30 $0 +0%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 Jun 17 $30 $0 +0%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Nuclear TigeRES (-6.5) vs K27 (+6.5) Jun 17 $30 $0 +0%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: K27 (-9.5) vs Nuclear TigeRES (+9.5) Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: K27 (-6.5) vs Nuclear TigeRES (+6.5) Jun 17 $45 $0 +0%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 Jun 17 $30 $0 +0%
Game Handicap: WB (-1.5) vs eStar Pro (+1.5) Jun 17 $30 $0 +0%
Game Handicap: WB (-2.5) vs eStar Pro (+2.5) Jun 17 $30 $0 +0%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: K27 (-3.5) vs Nuclear TigeRES (+3.5) Jun 17 $30 $0 +0%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: ONSIDE GAMING (-2.5) vs Gen.G Global Academy (+ Jun 17 $30 $0 +0%
Game Handicap: LGD (-1.5) vs Lindorfitos (+1.5) Jun 16 $500 $0 +0%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 16 $1,543 +$1 +0%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: KOLESIE (-9.5) vs GenOne (+9.5) Jun 16 $20 $0 +0%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: KOLESIE (-6.5) vs GenOne (+6.5) Jun 16 $280 $0 +0%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 16 $548 +$1 +0%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 33.5 Jun 16 $574 +$1 +0%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 Jun 16 $30 $0 +0%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 16 $30 $0 +0%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 27.5 Jun 16 $10 $0 +1%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Team Vitality (-2.5) vs FUT Esports (+2.5) Jun 16 $1,000 +$1 +0%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Team Vitality (-4.5) vs FUT Esports (+4.5) Jun 16 $30 $0 +0%
Total Kills Over/Under 45.5 in Game 2? Jun 16 $30 $0 +0%
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: ex-RUBY (-6.5) vs illwill (+6.5) Jun 16 $1,808 +$2 +0%
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: ex-RUBY (-3.5) vs illwill (+3.5) Jun 16 $30 $0 +0%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 16 $2,656 +$3 +0%
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: illwill (-3.5) vs ex-RUBY (+3.5) Jun 16 $30 $0 +0%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 16 $15 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Gentle Mates (-3.5) vs KOLESIE (+3.5) BUY Gentle Mates 100¢ $221 46m
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Gentle Mates (-3.5) vs KOLESIE (+3.5) BUY Gentle Mates 100¢ $310 52m
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Over 100¢ $250 56m
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Over 100¢ $250 57m
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Over 100¢ $250 58m
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Over 100¢ $250 1h
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Gentle Mates (-3.5) vs KOLESIE (+3.5) BUY Gentle Mates 100¢ $250 1h
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Gentle Mates (-3.5) vs KOLESIE (+3.5) BUY Gentle Mates 100¢ $1,499 1h
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 BUY Under 100¢ $25 1h
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Gentle Mates (-6.5) vs KOLESIE (+6.5) BUY KOLESIE 100¢ $25 1h
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Gentle Mates (-3.5) vs KOLESIE (+3.5) BUY Gentle Mates 100¢ $300 1h
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Walczaki (-3.5) vs TDK (+3.5) BUY TDK 100¢ $30 1h
Total Kills Over/Under 60.5 in Game 2? BUY Under 100¢ $5 2h
Total Kills Over/Under 55.5 in Game 2? BUY Under 100¢ $55 2h
Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 2? BUY Under 100¢ $55 2h
Total Kills Over/Under 45.5 in Game 1? BUY Under 100¢ $20 16h
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 BUY Under 100¢ $20 17h
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: MIBR Academy (-3.5) vs F4TALITY (+3.5) BUY MIBR Academy 100¢ $50 17h
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Under 100¢ $15 17h
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Pigeons (-2.5) vs Alliance Guardians (+2.5) BUY Pigeons 100¢ $45 17h
Total Kills Over/Under 70.5 in Game 2? BUY Under 100¢ $5 17h
Total Kills Over/Under 60.5 in Game 2? BUY Under 100¢ $10 17h
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: KOLESIE (-3.5) vs illwill (+3.5) BUY illwill 100¢ $250 17h
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: KOLESIE (-3.5) vs illwill (+3.5) BUY illwill 100¢ $250 17h
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Under 100¢ $20 17h
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: BESTIA (-2.5) vs KRÜ Spark (+2.5) BUY KRÜ Spark 100¢ $250 17h
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: KOLESIE (-3.5) vs illwill (+3.5) BUY illwill 100¢ $265 18h
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Over 100¢ $1,978 18h
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: KOLESIE (-3.5) vs illwill (+3.5) BUY illwill 100¢ $285 18h
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 BUY Under 100¢ $250 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,658.77 · official $3,658.77 (match) · 3382 history records