Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T22:35:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
43 0x4304…daed other 27 markets active 2h ago coverage 16d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$223 (-37%) realized −$247 · open +$24
Gross ROI / mkt +24% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +13% what you keep after slip
Net edge+13%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate35%8W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit33%portable
Net worth$119now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$12
7 days+$2
14 days−$10
30 days−$236
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 81% −$237
sports 19% +$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)+12.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -32.3% -38.7% 43% 43% -7.3%
≤30d 23 +24.4% +12.6% 35% 35% -52.4%
≤90d 23 +24.4% +12.6% 35% 35% -52.4%
all 23 +24.4% +12.6% 35% 35% -52.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +12.6% 35% -52.4%
10% +1.8% 35% -57.0%
15% -8.0% 30% -61.2%
20% -17.0% 26% -65.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -47% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +24% · $-wt -47% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -69% → late +110% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$23 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.31 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$119
Realized−$247
Unrealized+$24
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses8 / 15
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions4
Markets (closed)23 / 27
History coverage16d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 23 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 23¢ $40 $57 +$17 (+43%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Yes 54¢ 81¢ $30 $45 +$15 (+51%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 11¢ $20 $13 −$7 (-33%)
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-32%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $32 +$21 +65%
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $10 +$6 +57%
Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $10 +$5 +52%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? Jun 26 $5 −$5 -98%
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Jun 26 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -98%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $20 +$6 +30%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 +$17 +1668%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $40 +$21 +52%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $11 −$10 -95%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -94%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -94%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -94%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $21 −$20 -95%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $205 −$200 -98%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -94%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $42 −$40 -95%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 13 $11 −$11 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $21 +$21 +102%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $21 +$8 +36%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 54¢ $30 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 20¢ $5 30h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 60¢ $32 32h
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 63¢ $10 34h
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $5 39h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY Yes 39¢ $10 39h
Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 65¢ $10 39h
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 39h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 20¢ $10 5d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $10 11d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 100¢ $26 12d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 73¢ $20 12d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 65¢ $40 12d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes $1 12d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes $1 12d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $11 13d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 13d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes $5 13d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes $5 13d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $21 13d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 83¢ $101 14d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes $5 14d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $105 14d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $42 14d
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 17¢ $11 15d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $21 15d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $11 15d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $21 15d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $11 15d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $21 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $119.30 · official $120.55 · 54 history records