Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T21:00:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
43 0x4304…1c4e sports 38 markets active 2h ago coverage 213d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$8,433 (+30%) realized +$8,343 · open +$90
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate45%15W / 18L
Whale WR78%big bets
Drawdown30%max
Avg bet$731per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$91est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$194now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$93
7 days−$95
14 days−$95
30 days+$554
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% +$8,349
other 1% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -47.3% -52.3% 0% 0% -41.5%
≤30d 9 -12.3% -20.7% 33% 33% +3.0%
≤90d 12 +4.3% -5.6% 50% 42% +20.8%
all 33 -0.4% -9.9% 45% 42% +17.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 42% +17.5%
10% -18.5% 42% +6.2%
15% -26.4% 42% -4.0%
20% -33.6% 39% -13.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +34% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +30% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 78% (≥$1,159) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +18% → late -17% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
6.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$996 vs −$372 · ×2.68 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.23 per $1 lost it wins $2.23
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

213d coverage
Net worth$194
Realized+$8,343
Unrealized+$90
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses15 / 18
Whale WR (big bets)78%
Est. fees paid−$91
Open positions5
Markets (closed)33 / 38
History coverage213d
Avg bet$731
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown30%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 19¢ $90 $190 +$100 (+111%)
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $3 $2 −$2 (-50%)
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $4 $2 −$2 (-62%)
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $3 $0 −$2 (-83%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $3 $0 −$2 (-83%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $14 −$4 -26%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $23 −$10 -44%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $55 −$17 -30%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $174 −$62 -36%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $1,239 −$1,239 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $788 +$1,013 +129%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $1,159 +$641 +55%
Stuttgart Open: Rinky Hijikata vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 11 $561 +$233 +42%
Roland Garros ATP: Alexander Shevchenko vs Alex Michelsen May 25 $2,774 +$1,795 +65%
Roland Garros ATP: Pablo Llamas Ruiz vs Thiago Agustin Tirante May 24 $745 +$655 +88%
Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico Verhoeven May 24 $1,998 +$195 +10%
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Kolkata Knight Riders Mar 29 $1,004 +$541 +54%
UFC Fight Night: Yousri Belgaroui vs. Mansur Abdul-Malik (Middleweight Mar 29 $600 −$600 -100%
LoL: DN Freecs vs DRX (BO5) - LCK Cup Playoffs Mar 28 $449 −$449 -100%
LoL: Disguised vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Lock In Playoffs Mar 28 $1,353 −$1,353 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs TheMongolz (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Playoff Mar 28 $4 −$4 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs MOUZ (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Playoffs Feb 21 $735 +$1,230 +167%
Dubai Duty Free Tennis Championships: Elina Svitolina vs Jessica Pegul Feb 21 $2,711 +$1,743 +64%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs TheMongolz (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Playoffs Feb 21 $248 +$672 +270%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Playoffs Feb 20 $2,649 +$1,490 +56%
Delray Beach Open: Zachary Svajda vs Frances Tiafoe Feb 20 $2,934 +$1,651 +56%
Qatar Open: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Andrey Rublev Feb 19 $1,510 +$1,140 +75%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Bounty Qual Jan 18 $863 +$1,696 +197%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs ENCE (BO3) Jan 17 $256 −$256 -100%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs Heroic (BO3) - BLAST Bounty Qualifier Jan 17 $889 −$889 -100%
Knicks vs. Warriors Jan 16 $675 −$675 -100%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs M80 (BO3) Jan 15 $672 −$672 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Virtus.pro (BO3) Jan 15 $288 −$288 -100%
Grizzlies vs. Pelicans Dec 03 $130 −$130 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Hawks Nov 29 $129 +$251 +194%
Rangers vs. Hurricanes Nov 27 $26 −$26 -100%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs fnatic (BO3) Nov 27 $14 −$14 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $11 1h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $13 1h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $38 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 12¢ $112 1h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Team Falcons 68¢ $343 15d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Team Falcons 68¢ $618 15d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Team Falcons 68¢ $56 15d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Monte 43¢ $23 15d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Monte 43¢ $21 15d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Monte 43¢ $135 15d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Monte 43¢ $609 15d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Team Falcons 68¢ $137 15d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Team Falcons 68¢ $85 15d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Spirit 64¢ $529 16d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Spirit 64¢ $5 16d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Spirit 64¢ $624 16d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $174 16d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $2 16d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $3 16d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $3 16d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $3 16d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $4 16d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $14 16d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $23 16d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $92 16d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $55 16d
Stuttgart Open: Rinky Hijikata vs Frances Tiafoe BUY Frances Tiafoe 70¢ $15 16d
Stuttgart Open: Rinky Hijikata vs Frances Tiafoe BUY Frances Tiafoe 70¢ $264 16d
Stuttgart Open: Rinky Hijikata vs Frances Tiafoe BUY Frances Tiafoe 70¢ $283 16d
Roland Garros ATP: Alexander Shevchenko vs Alex Michelsen BUY Alex Michelsen 60¢ $1,905 33d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $193.50 · official $193.50 (match) · 301 history records