Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T08:15:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
43 0x4305…df2e world 10 markets active 1h ago coverage 75d
RISKYcopy with care world specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$811 (+132%) realized +$811 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +182% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +155% what you keep after slip
Net edge+155%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate30%3W / 7L
Drawdown16%max
Avg bet$61per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$922
30 days+$851
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 47% +$7
sports 34% −$125
other 19% +$926
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)+155.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 8 +240.0% +207.6% 38% 25% +105.7%
≤90d 10 +182.0% +155.1% 30% 20% +87.1%
all 10 +182.0% +155.1% 30% 20% +87.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +155.1% 20% +87.1%
10% +130.7% 10% +69.2%
15% +108.4% 10% +52.9%
20% +88.0% 10% +37.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 99% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +132% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +182% · $-wt +132% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$312 vs −$43 · ×7.32 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×7.32 per $1 lost it wins $7.32
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

75d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$811
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses3 / 7
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)10 / 10
History coverage75d
Avg bet$61
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown16%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 10 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Donald Trump attend NATO Summit? Jun 24 $66 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by September 30, 2026? Jun 24 $65 $0 +0%
Game 1: Any Player Rampage? Jun 11 $38 +$922 +2400%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 10 $54 +$10 +18%
Nord Stream pipeline turned on before 2027? Jun 09 $76 +$4 +5%
Lai Ching-te out as President of Taiwan by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $81 −$3 -4%
Spread: Ghana (-1.5) Jun 02 $82 −$82 -100%
Will Ukraine agree to give up the rest of Donbas before 2027? Jun 02 $85 $0 +0%
Spread: Gaziantep FK (-2.5) Apr 25 $43 −$43 -100%
EU/NATO country announces peacekeeping force in Ukraine by June 30? Apr 11 $22 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Donald Trump attend NATO Summit? SELL No 8¢ $34 1h
Will Donald Trump attend NATO Summit? SELL No 8¢ $32 1h
Will Donald Trump attend NATO Summit? BUY No 8¢ $32 2h
Will Donald Trump attend NATO Summit? BUY No 8¢ $34 2h
Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 8¢ $32 4h
Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 8¢ $33 4h
Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $33 5h
Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $28 5h
Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $4 5h
Game 1: Any Player Rampage? BUY Yes 4¢ $19 14d
Game 1: Any Player Rampage? BUY Yes 4¢ $19 14d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $32 14d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $32 14d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $25 14d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $30 14d
Nord Stream pipeline turned on before 2027? SELL Yes 8¢ $40 15d
Nord Stream pipeline turned on before 2027? SELL Yes 8¢ $40 15d
Nord Stream pipeline turned on before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $38 15d
Nord Stream pipeline turned on before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $38 15d
Lai Ching-te out as President of Taiwan by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 8¢ $40 17d
Lai Ching-te out as President of Taiwan by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 8¢ $38 17d
Lai Ching-te out as President of Taiwan by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $40 17d
Lai Ching-te out as President of Taiwan by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $41 17d
Spread: Ghana (-1.5) BUY Ghana 8¢ $33 22d
Spread: Ghana (-1.5) BUY Ghana 8¢ $8 22d
Spread: Ghana (-1.5) BUY Ghana 8¢ $32 22d
Spread: Ghana (-1.5) BUY Ghana 8¢ $8 22d
Will Ukraine agree to give up the rest of Donbas before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $2 22d
Will Ukraine agree to give up the rest of Donbas before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $43 22d
Will Ukraine agree to give up the rest of Donbas before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $40 22d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 42 history records