Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T06:15:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
43 0x4308…f845 world 53 markets active 2h ago coverage 485d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$29 (+2%) realized +$29 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip
Net edge-1%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate55%28W / 23L
Drawdown4%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$39now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days+$2
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 51% +$2
other 18% $0
politics 17% +$1
crypto 8% +$4
sports 4% +$19
economics 2% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-1.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +0.1% -9.4% 38% 0% -9.0%
≤30d 16 -0.4% -9.9% 38% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 16 -0.4% -9.9% 38% 0% -9.3%
all 51 +9.3% -1.1% 55% 12% -7.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.1% 12% -7.6%
10% -10.6% 6% -16.4%
15% -19.2% 4% -24.5%
20% -27.1% 4% -31.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 48% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
79% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +17% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×3.61 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×8.42 per $1 lost it wins $8.42
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

485d coverage
Net worth$39
Realized+$29
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses28 / 23
Open positions2
Markets (closed)51 / 53
History coverage485d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown4%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 51 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? No 72¢ 72¢ $39 $39 +$0 (+0%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? No 46¢ 53¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 19 $39 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $21 $0 -1%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $11 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 17 $39 $0 -1%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $32 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $86 +$2 +2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $49 $0 +1%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 12 $37 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 10 $6 $0 -5%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 10 $20 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 09 $112 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 09 $37 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 09 $37 $0 +1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $40 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 06 $26 −$1 -3%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $41 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 24 $9 $0 -1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before June? Jun 03 $1 $0 +2%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jun 03 $12 $0 +1%
Will the LA Clippers win the Western Conference? May 07 $15 $0 +0%
Liverpool wins the Premier League? Apr 28 $4 $0 +12%
Will Bitcoin reach $100k in April? Apr 17 $22 +$1 +6%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? Apr 16 $3 $0 +10%
Will Scottie Scheffler win The 2025 Masters? Apr 15 $25 +$1 +2%
Will Trump pardon Young Thug in his first 100 days? Apr 14 $0 $0 +25%
Will Karoline Leavitt be out as White House Press Secretary in Trump's Apr 12 $26 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on Apr 11 $26 $0 -0%
Will Xander Schauffele win The 2025 Masters? Apr 11 $5 $0 +4%
Will Călin Georgescu advance to the Romanian Presidential Election Run Apr 11 $21 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon CZ in his first 100 days? Apr 10 $26 $0 -0%
Will Trump announce Kevin Hassett as next Fed Chair? Apr 10 $26 $0 +0%
Will Fridolin Ambongo Besungu be the next pope? Apr 09 $26 $0 +0%
Will Hong Joon-pyo be elected the next president of South Korea? Apr 08 $25 $0 -0%
Will PRO win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 Apr 08 $26 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $190 in April? Apr 07 $25 +$1 +2%
Will Andrew Yang win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City Apr 04 $25 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with MrBeast in his first 100 days? Apr 04 $25 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 again by March 31? Apr 02 $23 +$1 +6%
Will Ethereum hit $2,600.00 again by March 31? Mar 25 $23 $0 +1%
Will Trump issue an executive order on March 23? Mar 24 $23 $0 +1%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2025 China Grand Prix? Mar 24 $17 +$1 +7%
Will 'Magazine Dreams' gross between 1-2m on opening weekend? Mar 23 $5 −$1 -22%
Will Elon tweet 700 or more times March 14-21? Mar 22 $15 $0 +1%
Will Paris Saint-Germain win the UEFA Champions League? Mar 18 $2 +$6 +289%
Will 'Zero Day: Limited Series' be the top global Netflix show this we Mar 15 $15 $0 -1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $85000 and $87000 on Mar 14? Mar 15 $14 +$1 +5%
Will Liverpool win the UEFA Champions League? Mar 13 $16 +$3 +21%
BSW wins 5% or more of vote in German election? Mar 07 $17 $0 -0%
Syracuse vs. SMU Mar 06 $7 +$1 +14%
Will Trump say 'Zelenskyy' during the 2025 State of the Union? Mar 04 $10 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $39 1h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $39 5h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $39 7h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes $4 14h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes $2 15h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes $3 15h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $11 23h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $11 24h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 83¢ $12 33h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 83¢ $27 33h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 84¢ $39 36h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $16 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $16 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $32 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $32 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 78¢ $14 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 78¢ $26 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 74¢ $37 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $8 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $3 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $25 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 83¢ $37 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 21¢ $8 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 20¢ $8 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $11 6d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 6d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $11 6d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $37 6d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $37 6d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 13¢ $4 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $39.14 · official $38.88 (match) · 156 history records