Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T18:09:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
43 0x4309…03a6 sports 21 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$475 (-11%) realized −$495 · open +$20
Gross ROI / mkt -31% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -42% what you keep after slip
Net edge-42%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate40%8W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$212per market
Trades / day16.9pace
Fees−$70est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$211now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$470
crypto 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-37.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -30.9% -37.5% 40% 35% -19.9%
≤30d 20 -30.9% -37.5% 40% 35% -19.9%
≤90d 20 -30.9% -37.5% 40% 35% -19.9%
all 20 -30.9% -37.5% 40% 35% -19.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -37.5% 35% -19.9%
10% -43.5% 35% -27.6%
15% -48.9% 20% -34.6%
20% -53.9% 20% -41.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 54% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -31% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late -46% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$164 vs −$150 · ×1.09 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$211
Realized−$495
Unrealized+$20
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses8 / 12
Est. fees paid−$70
Open positions1
Markets (closed)20 / 21
History coverage6d
Avg bet$212
Trades / day16.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 20 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Qualifier Playoffs Power Rangers 64¢ 70¢ $191 $211 +$20 (+10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: ex-Sashi Academy vs eternal premium (BO3) - European P Jun 26 $60 +$20 +33%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald - Game 1 Winner Jun 26 $153 −$21 -14%
Piracicaba: Valerio Aboian vs Hernan Casanova Jun 26 $295 +$79 +27%
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 25 $232 −$229 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 22 $4 −$4 -100%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics: O/U 6.5 Jun 21 $113 −$113 -100%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 21 $90 +$24 +26%
Spread: Colorado Rockies (-1.5) Jun 21 $133 −$46 -34%
Chicago Sky vs. Dallas Wings Jun 21 $209 −$209 -100%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 P Jun 20 $198 −$198 -100%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs ex-RUBY - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $343 −$338 -98%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz Jun 20 $408 +$391 +96%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs ex-RUBY - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $412 +$20 +5%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $291 −$291 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $303 +$184 +61%
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playof Jun 20 $309 +$319 +103%
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs Virtus.pro - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $343 +$272 +79%
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episo Jun 20 $105 −$105 -100%
Dota 2: OG vs InterActive Philippines - Game 1 Winner Jun 20 $26 −$25 -97%
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Power Rangers - Game 2 Winner Jun 20 $225 −$225 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald (BO3) - The International Europe Cl BUY Power Rangers 64¢ $38 37m
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald (BO3) - The International Europe Cl BUY Power Rangers 64¢ $79 37m
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald (BO3) - The International Europe Cl BUY Power Rangers 64¢ $37 37m
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald (BO3) - The International Europe Cl BUY Power Rangers 63¢ $38 38m
Counter-Strike: ex-Sashi Academy vs eternal premium (BO3) - European P SELL ex-Sashi Academy 100¢ $80 45m
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald - Game 1 Winner SELL Team Bald 49¢ $132 48m
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Bald 55¢ $7 59m
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Bald 56¢ $124 1h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Bald 55¢ $22 1h
Counter-Strike: ex-Sashi Academy vs eternal premium (BO3) - European P BUY ex-Sashi Academy 75¢ $15 1h
Counter-Strike: ex-Sashi Academy vs eternal premium (BO3) - European P BUY ex-Sashi Academy 75¢ $15 1h
Counter-Strike: ex-Sashi Academy vs eternal premium (BO3) - European P BUY ex-Sashi Academy 75¢ $15 1h
Counter-Strike: ex-Sashi Academy vs eternal premium (BO3) - European P BUY ex-Sashi Academy 75¢ $11 1h
Counter-Strike: ex-Sashi Academy vs eternal premium (BO3) - European P BUY ex-Sashi Academy 75¢ $4 1h
Piracicaba: Valerio Aboian vs Hernan Casanova SELL Valerio Aboian 100¢ $211 1h
Piracicaba: Valerio Aboian vs Hernan Casanova BUY Valerio Aboian 76¢ $30 2h
Piracicaba: Valerio Aboian vs Hernan Casanova BUY Valerio Aboian 76¢ $132 2h
Piracicaba: Valerio Aboian vs Hernan Casanova SELL Valerio Aboian 68¢ $14 2h
Piracicaba: Valerio Aboian vs Hernan Casanova SELL Valerio Aboian 68¢ $3 2h
Piracicaba: Valerio Aboian vs Hernan Casanova SELL Valerio Aboian 68¢ $8 2h
Piracicaba: Valerio Aboian vs Hernan Casanova SELL Valerio Aboian 68¢ $8 2h
Piracicaba: Valerio Aboian vs Hernan Casanova SELL Valerio Aboian 68¢ $3 2h
Piracicaba: Valerio Aboian vs Hernan Casanova SELL Valerio Aboian 68¢ $3 2h
Piracicaba: Valerio Aboian vs Hernan Casanova SELL Valerio Aboian 68¢ $3 2h
Piracicaba: Valerio Aboian vs Hernan Casanova SELL Valerio Aboian 68¢ $3 2h
Piracicaba: Valerio Aboian vs Hernan Casanova SELL Valerio Aboian 55¢ $114 2h
Piracicaba: Valerio Aboian vs Hernan Casanova SELL Valerio Aboian 55¢ $1 2h
Piracicaba: Valerio Aboian vs Hernan Casanova BUY Valerio Aboian 47¢ $101 2h
Piracicaba: Valerio Aboian vs Hernan Casanova BUY Valerio Aboian 47¢ $33 2h
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants BUY Athletics 48¢ $58 38h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $210.77 · official $210.77 (match) · 109 history records