Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T10:18:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
43 0x4309…7456 sports 270 markets active 0h ago coverage 55d
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 55d only
✗ bot/MM pace (61 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$1,600 (+2%) realized +$1,628 · open −$28
Gross ROI / mkt +22% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate33%88W / 175L
Whale WR47%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$242per market
Trades / day61.2pace
Fees−$2,016est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$963now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$117
7 days+$179
14 days+$177
30 days−$90
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 91% −$360
other 9% +$137
crypto 0% −$60
politics 0% $0
world 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (61 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)+10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 +183.3% +156.3% 55% 41% -2.9%
≤30d 94 +37.8% +24.7% 36% 22% -9.5%
≤90d 263 +21.5% +10.0% 33% 22% -9.6%
all 263 +21.5% +10.0% 33% 22% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover61.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +10.0% 22% -9.6%
10% ← realistic here -0.6% 18% -18.2%
15% -10.2% 16% -26.1%
20% -19.0% 13% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +22% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 47% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +15% → late +28% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
7.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$10 · ×1.67 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

55d coverage
Net worth$963
Realized+$1,628
Unrealized−$28
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses88 / 175
Whale WR (big bets)47%
Est. fees paid−$2,016
Open positions7
Markets (closed)263 / 270
History coverage55d ⚠
Avg bet$242
Trades / day61.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 263 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $281 $288 +$7 (+2%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $177 $184 +$8 (+4%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $174 $138 −$36 (-21%)
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $130 $134 +$4 (+3%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $112 $128 +$16 (+15%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $93 $66 −$26 (-28%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $24 $24 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 130 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $9 −$5 -57%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $450 +$50 +11%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $850 +$50 +6%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $4 +$1 +39%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $12 +$1 +8%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $7 $0 -3%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $6 −$1 -19%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $469 +$21 +4%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $600 +$50 +8%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $45 −$20 -45%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,056 +$29 +3%
Spread: Cabo Verde (-1.5) Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $13 −$13 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $8 +$2 +30%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $110 −$43 -39%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $6 +$12 +200%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 +$1 +5%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $73 −$11 -15%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $36 +$2 +6%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $16 +$2 +12%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 13 $14 +$5 +35%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 13 $10 −$5 -50%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $3 +$10 +317%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
LoL: G2 NORD vs WLGaming Esports (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group C Jun 12 $6 −$3 -50%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $18 −$18 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $10 +$40 +400%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $18 +$27 +150%
ITF San Gregorio: Andreea Prisacariu vs Lisa Peer Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: Weibo Gaming Youth Team vs Saigon Warriors (BO3) - Asia Masters G Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $86 +$55 +64%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Saigon Dino (BO3) - Asia Masters Group C Jun 10 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $7 +$3 +48%
LoL: FENNEL vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO3) - Asia Masters Group B Jun 10 $14 +$5 +37%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 10 $8 −$7 -81%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 10 $10 +$1 +11%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $4 −$4 -100%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 08 $235 −$9 -4%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 08 $13 $0 +0%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 07 $15 +$1 +7%
Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 07 $747 −$3 -0%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $16 −$16 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $9 −$9 -100%
Rainbow Six Siege: All Gamers vs My Queen (BO1) - CN League Stage 1 Gr Jun 06 $0 $0 -97%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 06 $3 −$3 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $44 −$22 -51%
Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 03 $3 −$3 -100%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Houston Astros Jun 03 $3 +$24 +800%
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs KO (BO3) - Esports World Cup MESWA Closed Qual Jun 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 0m
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 2m
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 20¢ $12 3m
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 5m
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 20¢ $26 8m
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 20¢ $0 13m
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 20¢ $0 14m
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 17¢ $18 17m
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 20¢ $18 17m
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 20¢ $42 19m
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 20¢ $2 20m
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 20¢ $50 21m
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 20¢ $5 21m
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 20¢ $36 22m
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 20¢ $50 22m
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 20¢ $8 24m
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 24m
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 20¢ $28 25m
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 28m
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 17¢ $4 31m
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 17¢ $12 31m
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 17¢ $9 37m
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 17¢ $3 37m
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 43m
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 44m
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 17¢ $17 57m
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 17¢ $61 58m
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 21¢ $844 1h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 22¢ $7 3h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 22¢ $1 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $962.78 · official $962.78 (match) · 3500 history records