Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T08:36:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
43 0x4310…cd60 crypto 299 markets active 0h ago coverage 60d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 59d only
✗ bot/MM pace (55 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$49,317 (-19%) realized −$49,317 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate53%158W / 141L
Whale WR44%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$881per market
Trades / day54.8pace
Fees−$3,523est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$53
7 days+$82
14 days+$230
30 days−$276
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 77% −$35,928
crypto 13% +$348
world 6% −$307
other 3% −$324
finance 1% −$339
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (55 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)+1.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 +186.1% +158.8% 50% 39% -1.3%
≤30d 190 +22.9% +11.2% 59% 41% -10.0%
≤90d 299 +11.6% +1.0% 53% 33% -22.1%
all 299 +11.6% +1.0% 53% 33% -22.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover54.8 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +1.0% 33% -22.1%
10% -8.7% 22% -29.5%
15% ← realistic here -17.5% 16% -36.4%
20% -25.6% 12% -42.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
37% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 44% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +8% → late +15% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
6.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$69 vs −$347 · ×0.2 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.23 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

60d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$49,317
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses158 / 141
Whale WR (big bets)44%
Est. fees paid−$3,523
Open positions0
Markets (closed)299 / 299
History coverage60d ⚠
Avg bet$881
Trades / day54.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 299 Trades
no open positions (10 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 21 $113 −$27 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 21 $12 +$12 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 21 $103 +$95 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 21 $102 +$27 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 21 $10 +$4 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 21 $51 +$15 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 21 $17 +$3 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 21 $103 +$43 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 21 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 21 $16 −$15 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 21 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 21 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 21 $47 −$47 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 17 $307 +$14 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $203 +$17 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 13 $104 +$75 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 13 $11 −$5 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 13 $365 −$48 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 13 $103 +$69 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 07 $407 −$186 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 07 $413 +$296 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 07 $200 −$22 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 07 $104 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 07 $106 −$53 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 07 $207 −$116 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 07 $309 −$184 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 07 $115 +$19 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 07 $114 −$74 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 07 $102 +$20 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 07 $155 +$101 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 07 $103 −$101 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 07 $102 +$7 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 07 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 07 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 07 $105 −$84 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 07 $104 −$25 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 07 $102 +$17 +16%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $102 −$75 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 07 $256 +$102 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 07 $101 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 07 $143 +$8 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 07 $101 +$10 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 07 $413 +$295 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 07 $369 +$52 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 07 $306 +$12 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 07 $207 +$37 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 07 $102 +$30 +29%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $10 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET SELL Up 27¢ $0 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET SELL Up 40¢ $10 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET SELL Up 50¢ $70 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $103 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET SELL Down 60¢ $23 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $12 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $103 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET SELL Down 93¢ $128 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $0 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.97 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records