Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T09:50:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

43
0x4310…37e1
politics · 46 markets active 2d ago
0.0score
+$53,502 +5%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$44,244 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge⚠ High turnover
Net worth$0
Realized+$44,244
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses33 / 13
Whale WR (big bets)75%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)46 / 46
History coverage39d
Avg bet$25,333
Trades / day34.0
Drawdown3%
Kalshi-fit89%
Chart Positions 0 History 46 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$35,121
7 days+$35,121
14 days+$35,328
30 days+$44,022
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $3,449 −$1,353 -39%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 12 $98,165 +$17,390 +18%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? Jun 12 $1,400 +$58 +4%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 12 $22,430 +$7,211 +32%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? Jun 12 $61,582 +$9,704 +16%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $10,721 +$2,110 +20%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 01 $2,061 −$278 -14%
Will SpaceX IPO by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $56 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Jun 01 $23,622 +$122 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 01 $118 +$5 +4%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 01 $866 +$124 +14%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 May 31 $385 +$11 +3%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 31 $777 +$223 +29%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on May May 30 $974 +$26 +3%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31 May 30 $998 +$2 +0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 26 $17,153 −$56 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 25 $8,398 −$79 -1%
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 25 $596,556 +$7,867 +1%
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele May 25 $4,408 −$222 -5%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 24 $99 −$99 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. Houston Astros May 24 $110 −$110 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET May 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet May 24 $209 +$1 +0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet May 24 $977 −$5 -1%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 24 $104,382 −$185 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 24 $44,037 −$188 -0%
Trump kiss by May 31? May 23 $94 +$6 +6%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? May 19 $335 +$7 +2%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 18 $1,688 −$65 -4%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 16 $7,835 $0 +0%
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? May 16 $57,315 +$1,744 +3%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 16, 2026? May 16 $1,384 +$55 +4%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 14, 2026? May 15 $17,921 +$105 +1%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? May 15 $9,990 −$124 -1%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? May 14 $1,173 +$2 +0%
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 13, 2026? May 13 $3,560 +$110 +3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? May 12 $33,434 +$33 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 11 $790 +$2 +0%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. San Diego Padres May 09 $49 +$2 +5%
Golden Knights vs. Ducks May 09 $11 $0 +0%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? May 09 $12,128 +$11 +0%
Will Rumen Radev be the next prime minister of Bulgaria after the 2026 May 08 $69 +$1 +1%
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, R House May 07 $1,038 $0 +0%
Will Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) win the most seats in the 2026 Tam May 04 $434 +$8 +2%
Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the May 04 $11,265 +$66 +1%
Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 W May 04 $872 +$6 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
politics 70% +$7,280
tech 17% +$35,481
other 6% +$1,650
world 5% −$111
economics 2% +$155
sports 0% −$207
crypto 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? BUY Yes 78¢ $7 45h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? BUY Yes 91¢ $9,680 45h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? BUY Yes 89¢ $81 46h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? BUY Yes 89¢ $16 46h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? BUY Yes 89¢ $3 46h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? BUY Yes 89¢ $89 46h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? BUY Yes 89¢ $184 46h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? BUY Yes 89¢ $779 46h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? BUY Yes 89¢ $81 46h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? BUY Yes 89¢ $1,780 46h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? BUY Yes 89¢ $40 46h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? BUY Yes 89¢ $8 47h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? BUY Yes 89¢ $24 47h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? BUY Yes 89¢ $81 47h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? BUY Yes 89¢ $47 47h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? BUY Yes 89¢ $243 47h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? BUY Yes 89¢ $18 47h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? BUY Yes 89¢ $8 47h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? BUY Yes 89¢ $81 47h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? BUY Yes 89¢ $1,005 47h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? BUY Yes 89¢ $8 47h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? BUY Yes 89¢ $8 47h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? BUY Yes 89¢ $36 47h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? BUY Yes 89¢ $502 2d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? BUY Yes 89¢ $8 2d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? BUY Yes 89¢ $81 2d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? BUY Yes 89¢ $97 2d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? BUY Yes 89¢ $5 2d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? BUY Yes 89¢ $276 2d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? BUY Yes 89¢ $246 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-13.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +8.4% -2.0% 83% 67% +6.5%
≤30d 32 -6.4% -15.3% 62% 19% -5.8%
≤90d 46 -4.2% -13.3% 72% 13% -6.1%
all 46 -4.2% -13.3% 72% 13% -6.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover34.0 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.3% 13% -6.1%
10% -21.6% 4% -15.1%
15% ← realistic here -29.2% 0% -23.3%
20% -36.1% 0% -30.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1414 history records