Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T18:28:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
43 0x4317…ab7d other 27 markets active 1h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$64 (-3%) realized −$119 · open +$55
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate54%14W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$81per market
Trades / day13.5pace
Fees−$28est.
Kalshi-fit44%portable
Net worth$88now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$83
7 days−$24
14 days−$78
30 days−$78
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 70% +$74
other 30% −$98
crypto 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-8.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 +4.0% -5.9% 56% 56% -10.7%
≤30d 26 +1.5% -8.2% 54% 54% -13.3%
≤90d 26 +1.5% -8.2% 54% 54% -13.3%
all 26 +1.5% -8.2% 54% 54% -13.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.2% 54% -13.3%
10% -17.0% 50% -21.6%
15% -25.0% 38% -29.2%
20% -32.4% 31% -36.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late +11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$30 vs −$42 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$88
Realized−$119
Unrealized+$55
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses14 / 12
Est. fees paid−$28
Open positions1
Markets (closed)26 / 27
History coverage8d
Avg bet$81
Trades / day13.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit44%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 26 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Spirit 21¢ 56¢ $33 $88 +$55 (+167%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $89 +$51 +58%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $88 −$87 -99%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $76 +$62 +82%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $35 +$9 +25%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $29 +$38 +132%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 +$13 +67%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $113 −$112 -99%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $86 +$27 +31%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $70 +$15 +22%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $40 +$30 +76%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -99%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $2 +$1 +51%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $16 −$4 -25%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $24 −$6 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +50%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $527 −$208 -40%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $187 +$70 +38%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $38 −$5 -13%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $111 +$36 +32%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $50 +$22 +43%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $47 +$49 +104%
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $125 −$15 -12%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $165 −$55 -33%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 73¢ $20 47m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 10¢ $13 54m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 9¢ $14 55m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 65¢ $20 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 41¢ $20 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 37¢ $31 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL G2 69¢ $31 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 73¢ $34 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 26¢ $34 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 76¢ $102 7h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL FURIA 100¢ $102 22h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 38¢ $39 24h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL FURIA 39¢ $39 24h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 48¢ $50 24h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 73¢ $30 26h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 52¢ $19 26h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 50¢ $39 26h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Aurora Gaming 100¢ $138 26h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Aurora Gaming 43¢ $9 28h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Aurora Gaming 56¢ $67 31h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 89¢ $26 38h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 59¢ $17 39h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 75¢ $18 40h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 73¢ $17 40h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 41h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 97¢ $67 41h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 44¢ $4 42h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 41¢ $29 44h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 98¢ $33 44h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $20 47h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $87.91 · official $87.91 (match) · 112 history records