Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T18:46:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
43 0x431d…8fde sports 129 markets active 1h ago coverage 562d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$5,126 (+4%) realized +$4,954 · open +$172
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate62%75W / 46L
Whale WR90%big bets
Drawdown42%max
Avg bet$972per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Fees−$75est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$10,582now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$252
7 days−$58
14 days−$106
30 days+$109
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 47% +$7,060
finance 19% +$1,422
politics 16% −$3,370
world 6% +$268
sports 4% −$479
other 4% −$220
tech 4% +$83
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-4.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +35.7% +22.8% 60% 50% -12.2%
≤30d 36 +4.0% -5.9% 58% 53% -8.4%
≤90d 79 +4.7% -5.2% 53% 48% -7.8%
all 121 +5.9% -4.2% 62% 47% -5.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.2% 47% -5.9%
10% -13.4% 36% -14.9%
15% -21.7% 27% -23.1%
20% -29.4% 20% -30.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 90% (≥$756) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -8% → late +19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
6.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$175 vs −$186 · ×0.94 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.54 per $1 lost it wins $1.54
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

562d coverage
Net worth$10,582
Realized+$4,954
Unrealized+$172
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses75 / 46
Whale WR (big bets)90%
Est. fees paid−$75
Open positions8
Markets (closed)121 / 129
History coverage562d
Avg bet$972
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown42%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 121 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? No 90¢ 92¢ $5,871 $5,947 +$76 (+1%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? No 91¢ 99¢ $1,820 $1,988 +$168 (+9%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? No 96¢ 99¢ $1,680 $1,740 +$60 (+4%)
Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027? Yes 78¢ 80¢ $780 $805 +$25 (+3%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $44 $45 +$1 (+3%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 13¢ $29 $38 +$9 (+29%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $26 $19 −$8 (-30%)
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs FURIA 15¢ 0¢ $160 $1 −$159 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 26 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June? Jun 21 $1,003 +$14 +1%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $235 −$231 -99%
Will G2 win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 20 $258 −$258 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 20 $101 +$224 +223%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $48 −$47 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 17 $52 −$52 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $66 +$174 +264%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $38 +$47 +122%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $43 +$57 +133%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $100 +$15 +14%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 14 $46 −$45 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $190 +$60 +32%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $64 −$64 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $61 −$60 -99%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $96 +$24 +25%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $26 +$54 +212%
Will BetBoom win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 12 $156 −$153 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $86 +$50 +58%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $75 +$110 +147%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $48 −$48 -100%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $16 −$15 -98%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 09 $31 +$14 +47%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $37 +$13 +35%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $23 +$12 +52%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $59 +$28 +47%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 06 $43 −$43 -100%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 06 $49 +$19 +38%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs FlyQuest (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 05 $49 −$48 -99%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Lynn Vision (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 05 $11 −$11 -98%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $19 −$19 -98%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 04 $34 +$28 +80%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Gaimin Gladiators (BO1) - IEM Cologne Jun 03 $26 +$9 +37%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May? May 30 $558 +$67 +12%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May? May 30 $4,788 +$227 +5%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Legacy (BO5) - CS Asia Championships P May 23 $80 −$80 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs MOUZ (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Pla May 23 $63 +$37 +59%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Legacy (BO3) - CS Asia Championships G May 22 $65 +$35 +54%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs M80 (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Grou May 20 $95 +$15 +16%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BC.Game Esports (BO1) - CS Asia Champi May 20 $75 +$18 +24%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Natus Vincere (BO5) - IEM Atlanta Playo May 18 $262 +$56 +22%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? May 17 $16 +$3 +18%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO5) - PGL Astana Playoffs May 17 $213 −$210 -99%
Counter-Strike: magic vs Team Falcons (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs May 16 $221 +$32 +14%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Spirit (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs May 16 $41 −$41 -99%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Play May 16 $39 −$39 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Playoffs May 16 $41 +$132 +325%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs May 16 $79 +$69 +88%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs May 15 $37 +$29 +79%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs May 15 $75 −$74 -98%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A May 14 $44 +$25 +57%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY FURIA 9¢ $21 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY FURIA 17¢ $143 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof SELL Team Falcons 83¢ $434 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY Team Falcons 59¢ $15 10h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $918 11h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY Team Falcons 58¢ $287 19h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY Team Falcons 58¢ $3 19h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof SELL FURIA 41¢ $242 21h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY FURIA 42¢ $256 21h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? SELL No 99¢ $124 21h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? SELL No 99¢ $124 21h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 39¢ $53 24h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 59¢ $28 25h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 59¢ $28 25h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 57¢ $127 34h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 31¢ $101 2d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $99 2d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY 9z 27¢ $48 3d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY BetBoom Team 45¢ $52 4d
Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027? BUY Yes 78¢ $766 4d
Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027? BUY Yes 78¢ $14 5d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 17¢ $20 6d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY BetBoom Team 45¢ $10 6d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY BetBoom Team 45¢ $13 6d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY BetBoom Team 45¢ $8 6d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY BetBoom Team 45¢ $7 6d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 36¢ $46 6d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $30 6d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 87¢ $100 7d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Team Falcons 43¢ $43 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10,582.10 · official $10,582.10 (match) · 1109 history records