Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T23:58:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
43 0x4323…db83 crypto 13 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$35 (-2%) realized −$35 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate85%11W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$116per market
Trades / day25.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$35
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-4.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +6.0% -4.1% 85% 54% -11.6%
≤30d 13 +6.0% -4.1% 85% 54% -11.6%
≤90d 13 +6.0% -4.1% 85% 54% -11.6%
all 13 +6.0% -4.1% 85% 54% -11.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover25.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -4.1% 54% -11.6%
10% ← realistic here -13.3% 31% -20.1%
15% -21.7% 15% -27.8%
20% -29.3% 8% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 37% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +28% → late -13% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$134 · ×0.16 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$35
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)85%
Wins / losses11 / 2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)13 / 13
History coverage1d
Avg bet$116
Trades / day25.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 13 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 26 $102 −$102 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 26 $102 +$48 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 26 $100 +$6 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 26 $102 +$32 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 26 $201 +$18 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 26 $101 +$18 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 26 $166 −$166 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 26 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 26 $152 +$25 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 26 $152 +$38 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 26 $101 +$18 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 26 $26 +$27 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 26 $100 +$3 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $102 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $102 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $100 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $102 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $101 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $101 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $101 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $4 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $27 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $26 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $3 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $31 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $17 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $6 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $38 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $3 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $3 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $3 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $4 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $100 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $152 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $152 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $100 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 38 history records