Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:20:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
43 0x4325…4802 crypto 122 markets active 1h ago coverage 631d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$18 (-0%) realized −$16 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate90%108W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$107per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$119now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 68% +$11
politics 31% −$14
other 1% −$6
tech 0% −$3
economics 0% +$3
world 0% −$1
culture 0% −$4
weather 0% −$3
sports 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-13.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 7 +1.0% -8.6% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 25 -3.3% -12.5% 96% 0% -9.6%
all 120 -4.8% -13.8% 90% 13% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.8% 13% -9.6%
10% -22.1% 5% -18.3%
15% -29.6% 5% -26.2%
20% -36.5% 3% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
85% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$4 · ×0.07 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

631d coverage
Net worth$119
Realized−$16
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)90%
Wins / losses108 / 12
Open positions2
Markets (closed)120 / 122
History coverage631d
Avg bet$107
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 120 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on June 18? No 100¢ 99¢ $116 $115 −$1 (-1%)
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? No 92¢ 65¢ $5 $4 −$2 (-29%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 14? Jun 17 $111 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 10? Jun 12 $110 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on June 8? Jun 09 $114 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 5? Jun 06 $114 $0 +0%
Trump out as President by May 31? Jun 05 $4 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $110 in May? Jun 05 $6 $0 +6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 20? May 29 $164 $0 +0%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? May 04 $7 −$7 -100%
Will OpenAI have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Contr May 04 $2 $0 +4%
Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in April? May 04 $2 $0 +1%
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $230 end of April? May 04 $3 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $28 in April? May 04 $3 $0 +2%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? May 04 $7 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on April 24? May 04 $149 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,700 on April 17? Apr 19 $156 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 15? Apr 16 $152 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 9? Apr 10 $164 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 6? Apr 07 $162 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 3? Apr 04 $167 $0 +0%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $125 by end of March? Apr 02 $3 $0 +2%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,500 and $2,600 on March 30? Mar 31 $160 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on March 27? Mar 28 $160 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1,700 on March 25? Mar 26 $161 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on March 23? Mar 24 $165 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on March 19? Mar 22 $161 $0 +0%
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after March 2026 mee Mar 19 $4 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? Mar 18 $7 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 16? Mar 18 $154 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on March 7? Mar 14 $159 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $56,000 on March 6? Mar 07 $160 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on March 3? Mar 05 $167 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on March 1? Mar 03 $160 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on February 27? Feb 28 $163 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $76,000 on February 25? Feb 26 $163 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 20? Feb 21 $159 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 18? Feb 19 $166 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on February 16? Feb 17 $162 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on February 14? Feb 15 $159 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $78,000 on February 12? Feb 13 $164 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on February 10? Feb 11 $162 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on February 8? Feb 09 $160 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,900 on February 6? Feb 07 $161 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,100 on February 3? Feb 05 $165 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on February 1? Feb 02 $160 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap o Feb 01 $3 $0 +7%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $100,000 on January 30? Jan 31 $158 $0 +0%
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? Jan 28 $2 $0 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $98,000 on January 28? Jan 28 $153 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,600 on January 26? Jan 26 $156 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $3,700 on January 23? Jan 24 $151 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $116 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $111 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $110 8d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $114 10d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $114 12d
Trump out as President by May 31? BUY No 100¢ $4 22d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 20? BUY No 100¢ $164 29d
Will Solana reach $110 in May? BUY No 94¢ $6 45d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on April 24? BUY No 100¢ $149 55d
Will Hyperliquid dip to $28 in April? BUY No 98¢ $3 59d
Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in April? BUY No 99¢ $2 59d
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $230 end of April? BUY Yes 100¢ $3 59d
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,700 on April 17? BUY No 100¢ $156 62d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 15? BUY No 100¢ $152 65d
Will OpenAI have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Contr BUY No 96¢ $2 69d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY No 99¢ $7 69d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 9? BUY No 100¢ $164 69d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 6? BUY No 100¢ $162 74d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 3? BUY No 100¢ $167 76d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,500 and $2,600 on March 30? BUY No 100¢ $160 80d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on March 27? BUY Yes 100¢ $160 82d
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1,700 on March 25? BUY No 100¢ $161 84d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on March 23? BUY No 100¢ $165 86d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on March 19? BUY No 100¢ $161 91d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 16? BUY No 100¢ $154 94d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $7 94d
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after March 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $4 94d
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $125 by end of March? BUY No 98¢ $3 94d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on March 7? BUY Yes 100¢ $159 102d
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $56,000 on March 6? BUY No 100¢ $160 104d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $119.06 · official $119.06 (match) · 282 history records