Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T22:01:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

43
0x4325…324d
sports · 199 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$141 -2%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$139 · open −$3
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$72
Realized−$139
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses105 / 88
Est. fees paid−$67
Open positions6
Markets (closed)193 / 199
History coverage464d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%
Chart Positions 6 History 193 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$28
7 days+$0
14 days+$38
30 days−$189
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 17¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+4%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+19%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-6%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-6%)
Will Maya Joint win the 2026 Women’s French Open? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $6 $1 −$4 (-79%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $2 $0 +22%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? Jun 12 $50 +$4 +7%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 12 $30 +$1 +2%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $5 +$1 +17%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $20 +$23 +111%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 09 $15 −$10 -67%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 09 $6 −$1 -11%
Libema Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Botic van de Zandschulp Jun 09 $10 $0 -4%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $237 −$5 -2%
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 06 $313 −$3 -1%
Will Anna Kalinskaya be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? Jun 06 $5 +$2 +31%
Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 05 $31 +$2 +6%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs Flavio Cobolli Jun 05 $20 −$4 -17%
Rafael Jodar vs. Alexander Zverev: Total Sets O/U 3.5 Jun 05 $5 −$5 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Elina Svitolina vs Marta Kostyuk Jun 05 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elina Svitolina win the 2026 Women’s French Open? Jun 05 $9 −$5 -55%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev Jun 05 $40 +$1 +3%
Roland Garros WTA: Diana Shnaider vs Maja Chwalinska Jun 04 $184 +$8 +4%
Will Diana Shnaider win the 2026 Women’s French Open? Jun 04 $26 −$9 -36%
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 04 $62 +$12 +19%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $40 +$1 +3%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Berrettini vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 03 $98 +$21 +22%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Flavio Cobolli Jun 03 $99 +$4 +4%
Will Marta Kostyuk win the 2026 Women’s French Open? Jun 03 $30 +$5 +16%
Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Diana Shnaider Jun 03 $25 +$5 +20%
Roland Garros WTA: Anna Kalinskaya vs Maja Chwalinska Jun 03 $15 +$4 +26%
Will Anna Kalinskaya win the 2026 Women’s French Open? Jun 03 $5 −$2 -34%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca Jun 02 $55 $0 +1%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 02 $14 +$3 +23%
Jakub Mensik vs. Joao Fonseca: Total Sets O/U 3.5 Jun 02 $15 +$1 +6%
Roland Garros WTA: Francesca Jones vs Marie Bouzkova Jun 02 $1 $0 -22%
Roland Garros ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo Jun 02 $226 +$4 +2%
Roland Garros ATP: Moise Kouame vs Alejandro Tabilo Jun 02 $2 −$2 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Coco Gauff vs Anastasia Potapova Jun 02 $8 −$5 -66%
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Iga Swiatek Jun 02 $5 −$5 -100%
Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs. Matteo Berrettini: Total Sets O/U 3.5 Jun 02 $5 −$5 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs Raphael Collignon Jun 02 $10 −$7 -66%
Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico Verhoeven Jun 02 $20 +$10 +52%
Auger-Aliassime vs. Tabilo: Match O/U 38.5 Jun 02 $5 −$5 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Elina Svitolina vs Kaitlin Quevedo Jun 02 $29 +$1 +3%
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Points O/U 30.5 Jun 02 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? Jun 02 $10 −$10 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic Jun 02 $76 −$26 -35%
Will Casper Ruud win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 02 $7 −$1 -17%
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 02 $53 −$9 -18%
Roland Garros ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Clement Tabur Jun 02 $6 −$6 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Alexander Zverev Jun 02 $30 +$3 +11%
Roland Garros WTA: Mirra Andreeva vs Sorana Cirstea Jun 02 $30 +$1 +4%
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 01 $110 +$2 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 83% −$3
other 11% −$72
crypto 4% −$95
tech 1% +$4
culture 0% +$31
politics 0% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 76¢ $2 1h
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 61¢ $2 1h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? SELL No 100¢ $54 1h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? BUY No 93¢ $50 7h
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 81¢ $31 9h
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 78¢ $30 24h
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 99¢ $6 24h
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 84¢ $5 25h
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 41¢ $10 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET SELL Up 4¢ $0 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET SELL Down 94¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $1 3d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 54¢ $10 3d
Libema Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Botic van de Zandschulp SELL Tallon Griekspoor 79¢ $10 3d
Libema Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Botic van de Zandschulp BUY Tallon Griekspoor 81¢ $10 3d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 54¢ $10 3d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 4d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 4d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 4d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 4d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 4d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 4d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 4d
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev SELL Flavio Cobolli 0¢ $0 5d
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev SELL Alexander Zverev 100¢ $78 5d
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev BUY Alexander Zverev 92¢ $50 5d
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev BUY Flavio Cobolli 29¢ $5 5d
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev BUY Flavio Cobolli 38¢ $10 5d
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev BUY Alexander Zverev 86¢ $20 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-17.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +0.5% -9.0% 50% 33% -9.5%
≤30d 149 -14.1% -22.3% 53% 23% -12.1%
≤90d 188 -7.8% -16.6% 55% 29% -10.7%
all 193 -8.5% -17.2% 54% 29% -11.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.2% 29% -11.3%
10% -25.1% 18% -19.7%
15% -32.4% 12% -27.5%
20% -39.0% 7% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $72.48 · official $72.24 (match) · 834 history records