Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:03:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
43 0x4328…15ce weather 192 markets active 1h ago coverage 92d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$283 (-2%) realized −$283 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate71%135W / 54L
Whale WR71%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$87per market
Trades / day10.9pace
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$249now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$3
14 days−$227
30 days−$352
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 98% −$302
tech 1% −$9
other 1% −$2
world 0% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +0.3% -9.2% 69% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 63 -2.8% -12.1% 73% 0% -12.1%
≤90d 186 +1.1% -8.5% 72% 8% -11.2%
all 189 +0.5% -9.1% 71% 8% -11.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.1% 8% -11.2%
10% -17.8% 4% -19.7%
15% -25.7% 2% -27.5%
20% -33.0% 2% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 71% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +3% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$11 · ×0.19 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.47 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

92d coverage
Net worth$249
Realized−$283
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses135 / 54
Whale WR (big bets)71%
Open positions3
Markets (closed)189 / 192
History coverage92d
Avg bet$87
Trades / day10.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 189 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 18? No 100¢ 100¢ $102 $102 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C or below on June 18? No 100¢ 100¢ $98 $98 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C or below on June 19? No 100¢ 100¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 18? Jun 17 $79 −$1 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 17? Jun 17 $103 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 16? Jun 16 $99 +$3 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 16? Jun 15 $49 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 15? Jun 15 $89 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 15? Jun 14 $78 −$4 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on June 14? Jun 13 $50 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 14? Jun 13 $65 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 13? Jun 12 $54 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 13? Jun 12 $50 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $56 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 11? Jun 11 $79 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 11? Jun 11 $42 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on June 7? Jun 06 $294 −$261 -89%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 7? Jun 06 $25 $0 -0%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 7? Jun 06 $10 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 6? Jun 06 $388 +$13 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 6? Jun 06 $107 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 5? Jun 05 $546 +$10 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 5? Jun 04 $81 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 4? Jun 04 $371 +$6 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 3? Jun 03 $423 +$6 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 3? Jun 03 $185 +$4 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 2? Jun 02 $628 −$216 -34%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C or higher on June 2? Jun 02 $124 −$2 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 2? Jun 01 $321 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 2? Jun 01 $139 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 1? Jun 01 $128 +$7 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 1? Jun 01 $97 +$2 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 1? Jun 01 $528 +$13 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 1? May 31 $115 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on May 31? May 31 $374 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on May 31? May 31 $238 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on May 30? May 30 $128 +$3 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C or below on May 30? May 30 $223 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on May 29? May 29 $1 −$1 -82%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on May 29? May 29 $96 +$3 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C or below on May 29? May 29 $275 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on May 28? May 28 $767 +$22 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on May 27? May 27 $478 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C or higher on May 26? May 26 $817 −$2 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on May 27? May 26 $82 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on May 28? May 26 $193 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on May 26? May 26 $200 +$4 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on May 26? May 26 $570 +$5 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on May 19? May 25 $103 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on May 25? May 25 $534 +$5 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on May 24? May 25 $291 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on May 24? May 24 $129 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on May 24? May 24 $108 +$2 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C or below on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $98 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C or below on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $50 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $102 3h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 18? SELL No 97¢ $78 3h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 18? BUY No 98¢ $10 3h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 18? BUY No 98¢ $10 3h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 18? BUY No 98¢ $10 8h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $49 10h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $0 13h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $6 13h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $97 13h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $53 28h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $50 32h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $27 34h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $36 34h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $40 34h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 16? BUY No 91¢ $6 35h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 16? BUY No 98¢ $20 43h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 16? BUY No 96¢ $10 44h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 16? BUY No 94¢ $1 46h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 16? BUY No 94¢ $9 46h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 16? BUY No 96¢ $8 46h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $50 46h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 16? BUY No 96¢ $7 46h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 16? BUY No 98¢ $39 2d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 16? BUY No 98¢ $49 2d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $90 2d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 15? BUY No 98¢ $39 2d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $50 2d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 15? SELL No 92¢ $65 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $248.93 · official $248.98 (match) · 1062 history records