Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T20:55:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
43 0x4329…da65 other 14 markets active 4d ago coverage 3d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$195 (-39%) realized −$195 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -43% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -50% what you keep after slip
Net edge-50%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate29%4W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day7.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit21%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 94% −$195
sports 6% −$1
crypto 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-48.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -42.9% -48.4% 29% 21% -46.7%
≤30d 14 -42.9% -48.4% 29% 21% -46.7%
≤90d 14 -42.9% -48.4% 29% 21% -46.7%
all 14 -42.9% -48.4% 29% 21% -46.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -48.4% 21% -46.7%
10% -53.3% 21% -51.8%
15% -57.8% 21% -56.4%
20% -62.0% 14% -60.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 53% · top 2 80% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -41% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -43% · $-wt -41% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -55% → late -31% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$27 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.27 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$195
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses4 / 10
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)14 / 14
History coverage3d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day7.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit21%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 14 Trades
no open positions (7 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 1 Ecuador? Jun 15 $7 −$7 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $8 +$19 +249%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -88%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $15 −$13 -86%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 14 $90 −$90 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $107 +$6 +6%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $70 +$38 +55%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $71 −$50 -70%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $41 −$40 -99%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $20 −$16 -78%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $20 +$8 +41%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 1 Ecuador? BUY Yes 14¢ $7 3d
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 44¢ $20 3d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $27 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 10¢ $0 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 81¢ $2 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 3d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $8 4d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $15 4d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 90¢ $90 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $113 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $107 4d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $39 4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 43¢ $51 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 52¢ $20 4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 24¢ $20 4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 24¢ $20 4d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 4d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $30 5d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $30 5d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $20 5d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 9¢ $4 6d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 39¢ $20 6d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $29 6d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $20 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 25 history records