Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T23:31:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
43 0x432e…ad05 other 32 markets active 2h ago coverage 14d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$48 (+12%) realized +$50 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate61%14W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit9%portable
Net worth$55now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$12
7 days+$36
14 days+$42
30 days−$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 91% −$25
sports 7% +$11
crypto 1% +$4
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-19.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +27.4% +15.3% 86% 86% +2.3%
≤30d 23 -11.4% -19.8% 61% 57% -11.7%
≤90d 23 -11.4% -19.8% 61% 57% -11.7%
all 23 -11.4% -19.8% 61% 57% -11.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.8% 57% -11.7%
10% -27.5% 43% -20.2%
15% -34.5% 39% -27.9%
20% -40.9% 22% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 59% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -53% → late +27% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$13 · ×0.6 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$55
Realized+$50
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses14 / 9
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions9
Markets (closed)23 / 32
History coverage14d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit9%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 23 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 19¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 64¢ 62¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 66¢ 60¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-8%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 8¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+9%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 15¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 11¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-14%)
Will Jordan Bardella advance to the second round of the next French presidential election? Yes 80¢ 58¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-28%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $30 +$11 +36%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $2 −$2 -97%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $96 −$63 -66%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $11 +$2 +21%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $42 +$53 +126%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $15 +$2 +11%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $17 +$10 +57%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 +$1 +13%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $5 +$3 +52%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $10 +$6 +55%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $5 +$4 +73%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $10 +$4 +42%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $10 +$4 +42%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $10 +$2 +23%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 +$5 +48%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $15 +$1 +7%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 09 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 09 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 09 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 09 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 09 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 09 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 09 $5 −$5 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 1h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 73¢ $30 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 28¢ $32 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 68¢ $13 2h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 83¢ $82 9h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 66¢ $10 9h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $10 9h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 9h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 9h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 9h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 9h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 9h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 9h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 45¢ $11 32h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $2 2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 43¢ $20 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 82¢ $10 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 81¢ $1 5d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 43¢ $10 5d
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 90¢ $15 5d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 63¢ $15 5d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 88¢ $10 5d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 65¢ $5 5d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 64¢ $10 5d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $5 5d
Will Jordan Bardella advance to the second round of the next French pr BUY Yes 80¢ $2 14d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 59¢ $5 14d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 69¢ $5 14d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 20¢ $5 14d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $10 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $54.78 · official $54.49 (match) · 52 history records