Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T03:03:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
43 0x432f…fe1c other 11 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$137 (+15%) realized +$137 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate60%6W / 4L
Drawdown97%max
Avg bet$86per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit27%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% +$71
sports 49% −$66
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-3.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +6.3% -3.8% 60% 50% -8.9%
≤30d 10 +6.3% -3.8% 60% 50% -8.9%
≤90d 10 +6.3% -3.8% 60% 50% -8.9%
all 10 +6.3% -3.8% 60% 50% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.8% 50% -8.9%
10% -13.0% 50% -17.6%
15% -21.4% 50% -25.6%
20% -29.1% 30% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 52% · top 2 87% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$33 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$137
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses6 / 4
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions0
Markets (closed)10 / 11
History coverage6d
Avg bet$86
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown97%
Kalshi-fit27%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 10 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? Jun 28 $161 −$65 -40%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $102 −$64 -64%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $101 +$71 +70%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $162 $0 +0%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $2 +$1 +60%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $10 +$15 +146%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $100 +$48 +48%
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 3 Egypt? Jun 22 $5 +$2 +44%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Jordan vs. Argentina: Argentina O/U 2.5 AND Will Argentina win on 2026 BUY 52¢ $298 1h
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? SELL Yes 43¢ $96 1h
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? BUY Yes 75¢ $60 1h
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? BUY Yes 68¢ $101 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 19¢ $37 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 50¢ $102 3h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 58¢ $101 28h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $1 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $1 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 100¢ $162 3d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 62¢ $2 4d
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 50¢ $1 4d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 40¢ $10 5d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $100 5d
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 3 Egypt? BUY Yes 69¢ $5 6d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 6d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 43¢ $1 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $293.41 · 27 history records