Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T17:20:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
43 0x4330…72f5 sports 257 markets active 1d ago coverage 89d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$3 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate68%173W / 82L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day3.3pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$6now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$21
7 days−$136
14 days−$191
30 days−$118
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 73% +$36
other 27% −$45
world 0% −$2
crypto 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)-5.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 65 -10.6% -19.1% 58% 57% -23.6%
≤30d 141 -8.6% -17.3% 59% 58% -17.2%
≤90d 255 +4.6% -5.4% 68% 67% -10.0%
all 255 +4.6% -5.4% 68% 67% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.4% 67% -10.0%
10% -14.5% 60% -18.6%
15% -22.7% 45% -26.5%
20% -30.3% 26% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +22% → late -13% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$7 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

89d coverage
Net worth$6
Realized+$3
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses173 / 82
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions2
Markets (closed)255 / 257
History coverage89d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day3.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 255 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 47¢ 38¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-20%)
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $20 +$9 +44%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $40 −$40 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 +$5 +93%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $10 +$7 +67%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $91 −$90 -99%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $15 +$6 +40%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $3 +$3 +101%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $20 +$7 +36%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Map Handicap: MOUZ (-1.5) vs FUT Esports (+1.5) Jun 14 $5 +$2 +42%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $10 +$5 +48%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Map Handicap: AUR (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 14 $5 −$5 -99%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $16 +$8 +48%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $5 +$3 +55%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Vitality (-3.5) vs MOUZ (+3.5) Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $60 +$6 +9%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $4 +$1 +21%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $30 +$10 +33%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $15 +$8 +54%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $30 +$6 +21%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $50 +$21 +41%
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) Jun 13 $3 +$3 +93%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $30 +$10 +32%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $20 +$16 +81%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $40 −$40 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $3 +$3 +114%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $3 +$3 +109%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $25 +$11 +44%
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 12 $10 +$6 +60%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $13 +$2 +17%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $2 +$4 +180%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $20 +$6 +32%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $13 +$5 +40%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Map Handicap: PRV (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) Jun 12 $3 +$1 +44%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $30 24h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $20 44h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 65¢ $10 3d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 80¢ $40 3d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 65¢ $51 3d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $5 3d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 38¢ $3 3d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 72¢ $20 3d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 58¢ $20 3d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 60¢ $30 3d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 50¢ $5 3d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 49¢ $3 3d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 73¢ $20 3d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 93¢ $10 3d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 48¢ $5 3d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 49¢ $5 3d
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Over 50¢ $3 3d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 59¢ $10 3d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 53¢ $10 3d
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) BUY BetBoom Team 49¢ $5 4d
Map Handicap: AUR (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) BUY 9z 74¢ $5 4d
Map Handicap: MOUZ (-1.5) vs FUT Esports (+1.5) BUY FUT Esports 70¢ $5 4d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 67¢ $10 4d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 60¢ $5 4d
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 56¢ $2 4d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Spirit 92¢ $10 4d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Spirit 91¢ $50 4d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $5 4d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $5 4d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY Spirit 82¢ $4 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.86 · official $5.86 (match) · 542 history records