Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T11:10:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
43 0x4336…e51c crypto 479 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnoverP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (2054 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$17,119 (+1871%) realized +$14,442 · open +$2,677
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -77% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -82% what you keep after slip
Net edge-82%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate2%10W / 464L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day2053.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$2,749now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$3,086
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (2054 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-79.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 474 -76.8% -79.0% 2% 2% -48.7%
≤30d 474 -76.8% -79.0% 2% 2% -48.7%
≤90d 474 -76.8% -79.0% 2% 2% -48.7%
all 474 -76.8% -79.0% 2% 2% -48.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2053.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -79.0% 2% -48.7%
10% ← realistic here -81.1% 2% -53.6%
15% -82.9% 2% -58.1%
20% -84.6% 2% -62.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 50% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -25% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -77% · $-wt -25% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -54% → late -100% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
6.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$42 vs −$1 · ×34.24 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$2,749
Realized+$14,442
Unrealized+$2,677
Win rate (resolved)2%
Wins / losses10 / 464
Open positions36
Markets (closed)474 / 479
History coverage2d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day2053.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 36 History 474 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Up 1¢ 50¢ $4 $174 +$170 (+4202%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Up 1¢ 50¢ $4 $174 +$170 (+4202%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Down 2¢ 50¢ $8 $171 +$163 (+2021%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Down 1¢ 50¢ $4 $171 +$167 (+4117%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Down 1¢ 50¢ $4 $171 +$167 (+4117%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Down 1¢ 50¢ $4 $171 +$167 (+4117%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Up 1¢ 50¢ $4 $171 +$167 (+4118%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Down 1¢ 50¢ $4 $171 +$167 (+4117%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Down 1¢ 30¢ $4 $105 +$101 (+2498%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Up 1¢ 50¢ $1 $58 +$57 (+4203%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Up 1¢ 50¢ $1 $58 +$57 (+4203%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Up 1¢ 50¢ $1 $58 +$57 (+4203%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Up 1¢ 50¢ $1 $57 +$56 (+4117%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Down 1¢ 50¢ $1 $57 +$56 (+4117%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Down 1¢ 50¢ $1 $57 +$56 (+4117%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Down 1¢ 50¢ $1 $57 +$56 (+4117%)
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Up 1¢ 50¢ $1 $50 +$49 (+4491%)
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Up 1¢ 50¢ $1 $50 +$49 (+4491%)
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Up 1¢ 50¢ $1 $50 +$49 (+4492%)
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Up 1¢ 50¢ $1 $50 +$49 (+4492%)
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Up 1¢ 50¢ $1 $50 +$49 (+4491%)
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Down 1¢ 50¢ $1 $50 +$48 (+4400%)
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Down 1¢ 50¢ $1 $50 +$48 (+4401%)
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Down 1¢ 50¢ $1 $50 +$48 (+4139%)
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Down 1¢ 50¢ $1 $49 +$48 (+4401%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 464 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - June 4, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 11, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 27, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 30, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 6, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 9, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 23, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 22 $0 $0 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 19, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 2, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 23, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 4, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 11, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 8, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 12, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 22 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 14, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 23, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 15, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 5, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 6, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 22 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 7, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 5, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 7, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - February 19, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 12, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 12, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 27, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 20, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 7, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 1, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 11, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $3 0m
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 0m
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 0m
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 0m
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 0m
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 0m
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 0m
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 4m
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 4m
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $0 4m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $0 4m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $0 4m
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $0 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $1 4m
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $0 4m
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $0 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $0 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 11m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,748.95 · official $2,749.25 (match) · 3000 history records