Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T14:27:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

43
0x4337…8882
sports · 322 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$32,073 +6%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$52,726 · open +$37,992
avoidriskycopy
✓ COPY-WORTHY sports specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1,025,102
Realized+$52,726
Unrealized+$37,992
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses92 / 45
Whale WR (big bets)51%
Est. fees paid−$3,004
Open positions482
Markets (closed)137 / 322
History coverage2d
Avg bet$1,567
Trades / day1442.3
Drawdown72%
Kalshi-fit67%
Chart Positions 482 History 137 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$58,807
7 days+$52,726
14 days+$52,726
30 days+$52,726
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 92¢ 94¢ $279,466 $286,092 +$6,626 (+2%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 91¢ 99¢ $128,568 $139,958 +$11,390 (+9%)
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? No 96¢ 99¢ $90,946 $93,837 +$2,892 (+3%)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No 82¢ 88¢ $40,067 $42,643 +$2,576 (+6%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 90¢ 89¢ $30,033 $29,716 −$317 (-1%)
Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026? No 96¢ 99¢ $23,231 $23,903 +$671 (+3%)
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? Yes 47¢ 50¢ $21,650 $22,802 +$1,152 (+5%)
Trump out as President by June 30? No 93¢ 99¢ $20,642 $22,048 +$1,405 (+7%)
Will G2 reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? No 93¢ 93¢ $22,142 $22,007 −$136 (-1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 83¢ 83¢ $18,467 $18,456 −$11 (-0%)
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? No 91¢ 92¢ $17,210 $17,494 +$284 (+2%)
US strike on Cuba by December 31? No 56¢ 60¢ $15,294 $16,413 +$1,119 (+7%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? No 51¢ 60¢ $13,921 $16,397 +$2,476 (+18%)
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? No 95¢ 97¢ $15,833 $16,183 +$350 (+2%)
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? No 98¢ 99¢ $13,148 $13,329 +$181 (+1%)
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? No 78¢ 66¢ $14,833 $12,577 −$2,256 (-15%)
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? No 27¢ 55¢ $5,523 $11,286 +$5,763 (+104%)
Will Paper Rex win Valorant Masters London 2026? No 64¢ 66¢ $10,647 $10,984 +$337 (+3%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Yes 49¢ 46¢ $9,255 $8,783 −$472 (-5%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026? No 69¢ 68¢ $8,343 $8,317 −$26 (-0%)
New "Stranger Things" episode released by December 31? No 91¢ 94¢ $7,761 $8,092 +$331 (+4%)
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026? No 14¢ 53¢ $1,898 $7,239 +$5,341 (+281%)
Will Trump pardon Sam Bankman-Fried before 2027? No 89¢ 90¢ $6,958 $7,080 +$122 (+2%)
Major CEX insolvent in 2026? No 88¢ 93¢ $6,621 $7,003 +$382 (+6%)
Will MOUZ reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? No 93¢ 92¢ $6,650 $6,521 −$129 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Geek Fam ID vs ONIC - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $102 −$97 -95%
Rainbow Six Siege: SCARZ vs KINOTROPE gaming (BO1) - Asia Pacific Leag Jun 12 $39 +$46 +116%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 12 $27 +$29 +104%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 12 $168 +$140 +83%
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs MOUZ (+1.5) Jun 12 $256 +$132 +52%
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: FURIA (-3.5) vs MOUZ (+3.5) Jun 12 $117 +$216 +186%
Counter-Strike: Virtus.pro vs INOX Division - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $2 $0 +0%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 12 $2 $0 +0%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 12 $2 $0 +0%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 12 $2 $0 +0%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $51 +$1 +2%
Map Handicap: VP (-1.5) vs INOX Division (+1.5) Jun 12 $7 $0 +0%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 12 $3 +$2 +89%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner Jun 12 $279 −$265 -95%
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: TheMongolz (-3.5) vs B8 (+3.5) Jun 12 $28,335 −$556 -2%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 12 $150 +$144 +96%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $294 +$261 +89%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $278 +$278 +100%
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs G2 Ares - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $83 −$78 -94%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 12 $133 +$138 +104%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: FUT Esports (-3.5) vs G2 (+3.5) Jun 12 $244 +$11 +4%
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score 6+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $19 +$1 +6%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $50 +$135 +270%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 12 $135 −$63 -47%
Rainbow Six Siege: Leviatán Esports vs Four Angry Men (BO3) - CN Leagu Jun 12 $341 −$272 -80%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Team Liquid ID vs Bigetron by Vitality - Gam Jun 12 $278 −$213 -76%
Rainbow Six Siege: Wildcard Gaming vs Cloud9 (BO1) - North America Lea Jun 12 $872 +$238 +27%
Will Vitality reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 12 $187 +$134 +72%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $31,221 +$82,105 +263%
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Spirit (-3.5) vs Natus Vincere (+3.5) Jun 11 $699 +$15 +2%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 11 $364 +$358 +98%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 11 $2 $0 +4%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $1,739 +$1,650 +95%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 11 $482 +$10 +2%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 11 $55 $0 +0%
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Aurora Gaming (-3.5) vs Monte (+3.5) Jun 11 $1,178 −$67 -6%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $1,000 +$1,222 +122%
Rainbow Six Siege: M80 vs 100 Thieves (BO1) - North America League Sta Jun 11 $377 +$178 +47%
Spread: Mexico (-2.5) Jun 11 $8,588 +$2,014 +24%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $12 +$16 +138%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 11 $577 +$555 +96%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Forsaken - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $9 +$6 +67%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $161 +$126 +78%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $21,800 +$89 +0%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 11 $33 +$29 +89%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $685 +$96 +14%
Counter-Strike: Bebop vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Gr Jun 11 $229 +$269 +117%
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: FURIA (-3.5) vs B8 (+3.5) Jun 11 $168 +$8 +4%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $31 +$24 +79%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 11 $459 −$421 -92%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 81% +$133,285
sports 16% −$42,654
world 2% −$44
politics 1% +$123
finance 0% −$5
tech 0% +$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Warsh say "All-Time High" or "All-Time Low" during June Press Con BUY No 57¢ $1 1m
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 BUY Under 42¢ $7 2m
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Natus Vincere (-3.5) vs Legacy (+3.5) BUY Natus Vincere 45¢ $83 2m
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Team Falcons (-3.5) vs BetBoom Team (+3.5) BUY BetBoom Team 60¢ $86 3m
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Natus Vincere (-3.5) vs Legacy (+3.5) BUY Legacy 57¢ $247 3m
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? SELL Yes 50¢ $3 3m
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Under 51¢ $19 12m
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? SELL Yes 50¢ $3 13m
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Team Falcons (-3.5) vs BetBoom Team (+3.5) BUY BetBoom Team 60¢ $14 13m
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Over 47¢ $2 13m
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Under 51¢ $10 13m
Rainbow Six Siege: Wildcard Gaming vs Shopify Rebellion (BO1) - North BUY Wildcard Gaming 36¢ $25 16m
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? SELL Yes 50¢ $3 16m
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Spirit (-6.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+6.5) BUY Aurora Gaming 59¢ $3 16m
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? SELL Yes 50¢ $3 19m
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) BUY Team Falcons 37¢ $205 20m
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Natus Vincere (-3.5) vs Legacy (+3.5) BUY Legacy 57¢ $64 21m
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? SELL Yes 50¢ $3 23m
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Under 51¢ $15 33m
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 51¢ $50 33m
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 BUY Under 42¢ $21 34m
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 BUY Under 42¢ $352 34m
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 51¢ $17 38m
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Under 49¢ $20 38m
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Under 49¢ $3 42m
Will Kai Havertz score 6+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 89¢ $11 42m
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 BUY Under 42¢ $7 42m
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? SELL Yes 50¢ $1 43m
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Over 48¢ $9 44m
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 BUY Under 42¢ $7 44m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)+65.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 137 +83.1% +65.7% 67% 53% +13.0%
≤30d 137 +83.1% +65.7% 67% 53% +13.0%
≤90d 137 +83.1% +65.7% 67% 53% +13.0%
all 137 +83.1% +65.7% 67% 53% +13.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1442.3 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +65.7% 53% +13.0%
10% +49.8% 50% +2.2%
15% ← realistic here +35.4% 44% -7.7%
20% +22.1% 40% -16.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,025,102.35 · official $1,025,151.17 (match) · 3500 history records