Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T05:41:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

43
0x4338…9f58
politics · 8 markets active 2h ago
7.0score
+$9 +25%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$1 · open +$8
avoidriskycopy
✓ COPY-WORTHY politics specialist⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$38
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$8
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses1 / 0
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions7
Markets (closed)1 / 8
History coverage14d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 7 History 1 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the biggest blowout win in the 2026 NBA Finals be by 30 or more points? No 38¢ 95¢ $5 $12 +$7 (+150%)
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? No 40¢ 44¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+11%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 18? Yes 48¢ 56¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+18%)
Will the Democrats win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? No 58¢ 55¢ $5 $4 −$0 (-5%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 67¢ 57¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-14%)
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? No 26¢ 26¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? Jun 04 $5 +$1 +32%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
politics 47% $0
world 39% +$2
sports 14% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +100%
net ROI/market (all)+19.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 +31.6% +19.0% 100% 100% +19.0%
≤90d 1 +31.6% +19.0% 100% 100% +19.0%
all 1 +31.6% +19.0% 100% 100% +19.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +19.0% 100% +19.0%
10% +7.7% 100% +7.7%
15% -2.7% 0% -2.7%
20% -12.3% 0% -12.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $38.17 · official $38.17 (match) · 9 history records