Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T23:12:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

43
0x4339…13f0
other · 277 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$37 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$37 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$10
Realized−$37
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses29 / 247
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)276 / 277
History coverage160d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day5.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%
Chart Positions 1 History 276 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$4
14 days−$6
30 days−$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? No 97¢ 97¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? Jun 13 $8 −$1 -7%
Will Julian Alvarez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $11 $0 -1%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $31 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $23 $0 -0%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 12 $11 $0 -0%
Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $13 $0 -0%
Will Ferran Torres be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $11 $0 -1%
Will Turkiye reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $9 $0 -3%
Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 11 $13 $0 -1%
Will a player representing Belgium be the top goalscorer at the 2026 F Jun 11 $3 $0 -2%
Will Norway score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $6 $0 -2%
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 10 $26 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 10 $16 $0 +1%
Will Turkiye reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 10 $3 $0 +1%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 09 $18 $0 -2%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? Jun 09 $1 $0 -0%
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 09 $10 $0 -1%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Jun 08 $67 $0 -1%
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 08 $10 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 08 $36 $0 -0%
Will Colombia reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 08 $5 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 07 $84 $0 -0%
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026? Jun 07 $34 −$1 -2%
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 07 $7 $0 -2%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 07 $25 $0 -1%
Will the Buffalo Bills win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 06 $15 $0 -2%
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 06 $45 $0 -0%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 05 $18 $0 -2%
Will Switzerland reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $2 $0 -3%
Will Abbas Araghchi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 05 $12 $0 -1%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 05 $44 $0 -0%
Will Detroit Pistons win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 04 $8 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 03 $10 $0 -1%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee Jun 03 $6 $0 -0%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 03 $39 −$1 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 02 $3 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 02 $19 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 02 $22 $0 -1%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 01 $113 $0 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 01 $30 $0 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $50 $0 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 01 $23 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 31 $13 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 31 $47 $0 -0%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 30 $38 $0 -1%
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2026 World Series? May 29 $32 $0 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet May 29 $45 $0 -1%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 28 $62 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $36 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 27 $48 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
politics 26% −$5
other 26% −$9
sports 23% −$5
crypto 9% −$13
economics 5% −$2
culture 4% $0
world 4% −$1
tech 2% −$1
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun BUY No 97¢ $10 54m
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? SELL No 85¢ $8 1h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? BUY No 90¢ $8 9h
Will Julian Alvarez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 96¢ $11 9h
Will Julian Alvarez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $11 15h
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 96¢ $4 16h
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 96¢ $4 23h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $2 24h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $2 30h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 96¢ $11 30h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 96¢ $6 37h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 96¢ $5 37h
Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $13 38h
Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $13 42h
Will Ferran Torres be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $10 42h
Will Ferran Torres be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $11 2d
Will Turkiye reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 89¢ $8 2d
Will Turkiye reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 91¢ $9 2d
Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 97¢ $13 2d
Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 98¢ $13 2d
Will a player representing Belgium be the top goalscorer at the 2026 F SELL No 96¢ $3 2d
Will a player representing Belgium be the top goalscorer at the 2026 F BUY No 98¢ $3 2d
Will Norway score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 94¢ $6 2d
Will Norway score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 95¢ $6 3d
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 98¢ $12 3d
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 98¢ $12 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $6 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $6 3d
Will Turkiye reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL No 97¢ $3 3d
Will Turkiye reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 96¢ $3 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -1.0% -10.4% 8% 0% -10.2%
≤30d 72 -0.8% -10.2% 4% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 168 -0.5% -10.0% 12% 0% -9.8%
all 276 -0.4% -9.9% 11% 0% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover5.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 0% -9.9%
10% -18.5% 0% -18.6%
15% -26.4% 0% -26.4%
20% -33.6% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10.41 · official $10.41 (match) · 1025 history records