Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:36:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
43 0x433b…f372 crypto 374 markets active 1h ago coverage 232d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,712 (-4%) realized −$1,712 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate57%215W / 159L
Whale WR40%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$108per market
Trades / day4.2pace
Fees−$48est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,014
7 days+$1,197
14 days+$1,160
30 days+$980
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 61% +$1,340
other 23% −$1,829
world 5% +$64
politics 4% −$363
sports 3% −$411
tech 2% −$357
culture 1% −$343
economics 0% −$38
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 289 +8.1% -2.2% 70% 65% -4.8%
≤30d 310 +11.1% +0.5% 66% 62% -5.6%
≤90d 319 +8.9% -1.5% 64% 60% -11.1%
all 374 +0.4% -9.2% 57% 53% -13.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.2% 53% -13.5%
10% -17.9% 43% -21.8%
15% -25.8% 28% -29.3%
20% -33.1% 16% -36.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 40% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -1% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$37 vs −$62 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

232d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,712
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses215 / 159
Whale WR (big bets)40%
Est. fees paid−$48
Open positions0
Markets (closed)374 / 374
History coverage232d
Avg bet$108
Trades / day4.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 374 Trades
no open positions (84 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 17 $143 +$4 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 17 $71 −$8 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 17 $71 +$22 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 17 $31 +$49 +157%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 17 $72 +$26 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 17 $72 +$26 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 17 $141 +$12 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 17 $72 +$47 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 17 $203 +$22 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 17 $204 −$200 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 17 $123 −$67 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 17 $304 +$56 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 17 $201 +$19 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 17 $303 +$43 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 17 $183 +$37 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 17 $254 −$100 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 17 $146 +$17 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 17 $71 +$19 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 17 $142 +$34 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 17 $71 −$53 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 17 $143 +$47 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 17 $102 −$6 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 17 $202 +$22 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 17 $70 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 16 $102 +$48 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 16 $302 +$24 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 16 $71 −$71 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 16 $72 −$72 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 16 $72 −$72 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 16 $102 −$102 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 16 $71 −$71 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 16 $102 +$51 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 16 $203 +$18 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 16 $143 +$47 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 16 $71 +$18 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 16 $71 +$12 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 16 $72 +$47 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 16 $173 +$52 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 16 $256 +$44 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 16 $203 +$35 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 16 $142 +$32 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 16 $152 +$33 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 16 $71 −$67 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 16 $72 +$38 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 16 $154 +$28 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 16 $226 +$27 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 16 $82 +$51 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 16 $596 +$63 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 16 $203 +$47 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 16 $406 −$20 -5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $72 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET SELL Up 43¢ $41 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $71 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET SELL Up 67¢ $63 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $71 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET SELL Down 96¢ $93 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $71 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET SELL Up 82¢ $81 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET SELL Down 94¢ $98 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $72 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET SELL Down 95¢ $97 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $72 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $153 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $71 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $70 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $119 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $72 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET SELL Down 85¢ $226 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $203 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $102 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $102 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $51 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET SELL Up 50¢ $51 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $72 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $359 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $304 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $201 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET SELL Down 97¢ $347 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $152 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1243 history records