Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T04:49:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
43 0x433c…d38a world 5 markets active 1h ago coverage 11d
RISKYcopy with care world specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$10 (-1%) realized −$8 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate25%1W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$316per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$395now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 11d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 83% −$25
other 17% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -5.5% -14.5% 0% 0% -14.5%
≤30d 4 -1.4% -10.8% 25% 0% -11.3%
≤90d 4 -1.4% -10.8% 25% 0% -11.3%
all 4 -1.4% -10.8% 25% 0% -11.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.8% 0% -11.3%
10% -19.3% 0% -19.8%
15% -27.1% 0% -27.5%
20% -34.3% 0% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$8 · ×0.04 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$395
Realized−$8
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses1 / 3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)4 / 5
History coverage11d
Avg bet$316
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the U.S. test a nuclear weapon by December 31 2026? No 91¢ 90¢ $397 $395 −$2 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ukraine re-enter Kamianske by June 30? Jun 26 $419 −$23 -6%
KRG declares independence from Iraq by December 31? Jun 16 $261 $0 -0%
Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by June 3 Jun 16 $240 −$1 -0%
Will the U.S. invade Mexico in 2026? Jun 15 $264 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the U.S. test a nuclear weapon by December 31 2026? BUY No 91¢ $397 1h
Will Ukraine re-enter Kamianske by June 30? SELL No 86¢ $396 1h
Will Ukraine re-enter Kamianske by June 30? BUY No 91¢ $419 2h
KRG declares independence from Iraq by December 31? SELL No 93¢ $9 9d
KRG declares independence from Iraq by December 31? SELL No 94¢ $252 9d
KRG declares independence from Iraq by December 31? BUY No 94¢ $261 9d
Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by June 3 SELL No 94¢ $240 10d
Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by June 3 BUY No 94¢ $240 10d
Will the U.S. invade Mexico in 2026? SELL No 95¢ $264 10d
Will the U.S. invade Mexico in 2026? BUY No 95¢ $264 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $394.58 · official $394.58 (match) · 10 history records