Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:40:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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43 0x433d…a85a crypto 817 markets active 1h ago coverage 90d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 89d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$5,655 (-17%) realized −$5,504 · open −$151
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate47%383W / 429L
Whale WR40%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day31.5pace
Fees−$32est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$1,559now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$32
7 days+$28
14 days+$60
30 days−$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 87% −$2,981
sports 6% −$569
politics 4% −$118
other 1% −$37
tech 1% −$392
weather 0% −$53
finance 0% +$12
world 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-23.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -14.0% -22.2% 44% 44% -7.4%
≤30d 13 -4.1% -13.2% 46% 46% -10.1%
≤90d 812 -15.7% -23.7% 47% 34% -20.8%
all 812 -15.7% -23.7% 47% 34% -20.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover31.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -23.7% 34% -20.8%
10% ← realistic here -31.0% 28% -28.4%
15% -37.7% 23% -35.3%
20% -43.8% 20% -41.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 40% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -9% → late -22% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$18 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.5 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

90d coverage
Net worth$1,559
Realized−$5,504
Unrealized−$151
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses383 / 429
Whale WR (big bets)40%
Est. fees paid−$32
Open positions4
Markets (closed)812 / 817
History coverage90d ⚠
Avg bet$41
Trades / day31.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 812 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 62¢ 60¢ $1,000 $955 −$45 (-4%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $500 $432 −$68 (-14%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 13¢ $200 $166 −$34 (-17%)
Trump out as President before 2027? Yes 17¢ 10¢ $10 $6 −$4 (-44%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 140 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 17 $103 −$4 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 17 $103 +$37 +35%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $510 +$392 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 13 $52 −$20 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 13 $28 +$13 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 13 $27 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 12 $26 −$4 -14%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? Jun 12 $93 −$89 -96%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? Jun 12 $311 −$300 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 10 $52 +$27 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 09 $5 +$6 +105%
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 03 $82 −$44 -53%
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 03 $83 −$25 -30%
Connecticut Huskies vs. Michigan Wolverines Apr 07 $100 −$97 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Apr 05 $342 +$188 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Apr 05 $200 +$81 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Apr 05 $400 +$157 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Apr 05 $340 −$322 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Apr 05 $300 −$287 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Apr 05 $50 −$46 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Apr 05 $120 +$76 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Apr 05 $300 −$286 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Apr 05 $50 −$47 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Apr 05 $600 −$184 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Apr 05 $600 +$181 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Apr 05 $200 −$191 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Apr 05 $10 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Apr 05 $382 +$31 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Apr 05 $200 −$131 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Apr 05 $100 −$95 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Apr 05 $50 −$47 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Apr 05 $100 −$95 -95%
Pistons vs. 76ers Apr 05 $100 +$73 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Apr 05 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Apr 05 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Apr 05 $2 +$1 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Apr 04 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Apr 04 $100 −$96 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Apr 04 $200 +$8 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Apr 04 $200 +$29 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Apr 04 $141 +$32 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Apr 04 $2 +$2 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Apr 04 $3 +$3 +118%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Apr 04 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Apr 04 $17 −$16 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Apr 04 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Apr 04 $2 +$1 +70%
Spurs vs. Nuggets Apr 04 $100 −$99 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Apr 04 $100 −$96 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Apr 04 $11 −$10 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET SELL Up 63¢ $98 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET SELL Up 81¢ $130 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET SELL Up 42¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $103 1h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $411 36h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $103 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? A BUY 15¢ $103 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 100¢ $347 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 54¢ $555 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $26 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET SELL Up 41¢ $29 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $26 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET SELL Down 49¢ $41 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $0 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $7 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $6 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $4 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET SELL Down 18¢ $30 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 14¢ $27 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET SELL Down 35¢ $23 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $26 5d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? BUY Yes 2¢ $21 5d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? BUY Yes 2¢ $72 5d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? BUY Yes 7¢ $311 5d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 36¢ $510 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,559.19 · official $1,560.18 (match) · 3500 history records