Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T23:25:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
43 0x433e…6be1 other 102 markets active 2h ago coverage 119d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,169 (+19%) realized +$1,170 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate37%36W / 61L
Drawdown58%max
Avg bet$61per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit31%portable
Net worth$232now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days+$4
14 days+$121
30 days−$164
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 97% +$893
crypto 2% −$37
sports 0% +$53
weather 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-18.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -28.1% -34.9% 43% 43% -8.3%
≤30d 42 -3.1% -12.3% 45% 45% -14.8%
≤90d 62 +9.4% -1.0% 44% 44% +5.7%
all 97 -9.7% -18.3% 37% 37% +4.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.3% 37% +4.6%
10% -26.1% 34% -5.4%
15% -33.2% 30% -14.6%
20% -39.8% 26% -22.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +17% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt +16% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -35% → late +15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$82 vs −$33 · ×2.45 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.45 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

119d coverage
Net worth$232
Realized+$1,170
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses36 / 61
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions5
Markets (closed)97 / 102
History coverage119d
Avg bet$61
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown58%
Kalshi-fit31%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 97 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Yes 23¢ 24¢ $80 $83 +$3 (+4%)
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Yes 21¢ 22¢ $80 $81 +$1 (+1%)
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-3%)
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Yes 10¢ 8¢ $13 $10 −$3 (-22%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 40 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 25 $86 +$59 +68%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 24 $63 −$60 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 21 $52 +$7 +14%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 21 $52 +$44 +84%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $40 −$26 -63%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 17 $52 −$50 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 17 $21 −$6 -27%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 17 $104 +$135 +130%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 16 $83 −$81 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 16 $88 −$53 -60%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $62 +$29 +46%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 13 $21 +$17 +80%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $21 +$53 +249%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $31 +$31 +98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 12 $21 −$20 -94%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 12 $229 +$61 +27%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 10 $106 +$16 +15%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 10 $60 −$24 -41%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 10 $56 +$31 +56%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $108 +$135 +126%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $109 −$101 -93%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $86 +$24 +28%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $65 +$235 +360%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 03 $61 +$25 +41%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 03 $72 −$70 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 03 $64 −$62 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 02 $16 −$15 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 2? Jun 02 $2 +$3 +130%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $47 −$27 -58%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $31 −$28 -91%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 01 $36 −$35 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? May 28 $21 −$15 -71%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? May 28 $21 −$11 -52%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? May 28 $21 +$10 +50%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 28 $276 −$270 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 28 $192 +$101 +53%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 28 $197 −$115 -58%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 28 $148 −$89 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET May 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET May 27 $1 +$1 +134%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $114 +$388 +339%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $19 +$133 +711%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $104 −$104 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $104 −$97 -94%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 22 $10 −$10 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 22 $732 −$20 -3%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 22 $419 +$491 +117%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 22 $2 −$2 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 21¢ $83 1h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 23¢ $83 1h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $52 1h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $14 3h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 50¢ $137 17h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 50¢ $8 17h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 55¢ $159 20h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 33¢ $16 43h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 29¢ $13 43h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 43h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 33¢ $31 43h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 29¢ $72 43h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 33¢ $52 43h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $52 43h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 4d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 30¢ $59 4d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 44¢ $5 4d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 44¢ $23 4d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 44¢ $16 4d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 44¢ $12 4d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 44¢ $15 4d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 44¢ $26 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 23¢ $15 5d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 60¢ $40 5d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 5d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $52 7d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $52 7d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 23¢ $52 7d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 9¢ $15 8d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $21 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $231.83 · official $231.83 (match) · 294 history records