Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T18:58:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

43
0x4340…363d
crypto · 583 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$11,190 -4%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$11,730 · open +$540
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$2,879
Realized−$11,730
Unrealized+$540
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses316 / 593
Whale WR (big bets)57%
Est. fees paid−$1,729
Open positions1
Markets (closed)909 / 583
History coverage22d
Avg bet$453
Trades / day140.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 1 History 909 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$21,018
7 days−$18,299
14 days−$20,181
30 days−$11,730
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ilkley: Filippo Romano vs Jack Pinnington Jones Filippo Romano 81¢ 100¢ $2,338 $2,879 +$540 (+23%)
Minnesota Twins vs. Cleveland Guardians Cleveland Guardians 41¢ 0¢ $253 $0 −$253 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Down 44¢ 0¢ $36 $0 −$36 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Down 53¢ 0¢ $54 $0 −$54 (-100%)
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Yannick Hanfmann Yannick Hanfmann 38¢ 0¢ $90 $0 −$90 (-100%)
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Delhi Capitals Royal Challengers Bangalore 42¢ 0¢ $119 $0 −$119 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Up 44¢ 0¢ $54 $0 −$54 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Up 45¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Up 44¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 10PM ET Up 17¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Up 16¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Up 28¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Up 42¢ 0¢ $523 $0 −$523 (-100%)
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Tommy Paul Tommy Paul 47¢ 0¢ $570 $0 −$570 (-100%)
Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: Alex Molcan vs Felix Gill Alex Molcan 37¢ 0¢ $217 $0 −$217 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Down 37¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Up 61¢ 0¢ $35 $0 −$35 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Up 49¢ 0¢ $18 $0 −$18 (-100%)
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? Yes 23¢ 0¢ $63 $0 −$63 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Up 24¢ 0¢ $90 $0 −$90 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Up 21¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will Inter Miami CF win on 2026-05-02? Yes 35¢ 0¢ $63 $0 −$63 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Up 41¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Up 67¢ 0¢ $360 $0 −$360 (-100%)
Jiujiang: Lanlana Tararudee vs Sofya Lansere Sofya Lansere 13¢ 0¢ $63 $0 −$63 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Minnesota Twins vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 12 $253 −$253 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 12 $36 −$36 -100%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Delhi Capitals Jun 12 $119 −$119 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 12 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 10PM ET Jun 12 $100 −$106 -106%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: Alex Molcan vs Felix Gill Jun 12 $217 −$164 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 12 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? Jun 12 $63 −$63 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Inter Miami CF win on 2026-05-02? Jun 12 $63 −$63 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 12 $14 −$14 -100%
Jiujiang: Lanlana Tararudee vs Sofya Lansere Jun 12 $63 −$63 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 12 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia, Qualification: Anastasia Potapova vs Niko Jun 12 $156 −$156 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 12 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 12 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 12 $11 −$11 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in April? Jun 12 $17 −$10 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 12 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 12 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Istanbul: Katherine Sebov vs Berfu Cengiz Jun 12 $152 −$152 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 12 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 12 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 12 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 12 $16 −$17 -105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 12 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 12 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Royal Challengers Bengaluru Jun 12 $276 −$276 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 12 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 12 $11 −$11 -100%
Hamburg European Open: Tommy Paul vs Tomas Etcheverry Jun 12 $725 −$844 -116%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 50% +$12,046
crypto 49% +$1,419
other 0% −$674
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ilkley: Filippo Romano vs Jack Pinnington Jones BUY Filippo Romano 82¢ $519 22m
Ilkley: Filippo Romano vs Jack Pinnington Jones BUY Filippo Romano 91¢ $27 25m
Ilkley: Filippo Romano vs Jack Pinnington Jones BUY Filippo Romano 91¢ $546 25m
Ilkley: Filippo Romano vs Jack Pinnington Jones BUY Filippo Romano 79¢ $28 29m
Ilkley: Filippo Romano vs Jack Pinnington Jones BUY Filippo Romano 79¢ $63 29m
Ilkley: Filippo Romano vs Jack Pinnington Jones BUY Filippo Romano 79¢ $51 29m
Ilkley: Filippo Romano vs Jack Pinnington Jones BUY Filippo Romano 83¢ $526 31m
Ilkley: Filippo Romano vs Jack Pinnington Jones BUY Filippo Romano 71¢ $117 32m
Ilkley: Filippo Romano vs Jack Pinnington Jones BUY Filippo Romano 71¢ $7 32m
Ilkley: Filippo Romano vs Jack Pinnington Jones BUY Filippo Romano 71¢ $4 33m
Ilkley: Filippo Romano vs Jack Pinnington Jones BUY Filippo Romano 68¢ $124 35m
Ilkley: Filippo Romano vs Jack Pinnington Jones BUY Filippo Romano 74¢ $300 35m
Ilkley: Filippo Romano vs Jack Pinnington Jones BUY Filippo Romano 74¢ $7 35m
Ilkley: Filippo Romano vs Jack Pinnington Jones BUY Filippo Romano 74¢ $6 35m
Ilkley: Filippo Romano vs Jack Pinnington Jones BUY Filippo Romano 74¢ $21 35m
Tucuman: Carlos Maria Zarate vs Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi BUY Carlos Maria Zarate 44¢ $40 1h
Tucuman: Carlos Maria Zarate vs Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi BUY Carlos Maria Zarate 41¢ $37 1h
Tucuman: Carlos Maria Zarate vs Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi BUY Carlos Maria Zarate 45¢ $82 1h
Tucuman: Carlos Maria Zarate vs Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi BUY Carlos Maria Zarate 51¢ $186 1h
Tucuman: Carlos Maria Zarate vs Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi SELL Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi 60¢ $12 1h
Tucuman: Carlos Maria Zarate vs Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi SELL Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi 60¢ $202 1h
Tucuman: Carlos Maria Zarate vs Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi SELL Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi 55¢ $357 1h
Tucuman: Carlos Maria Zarate vs Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi SELL Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi 55¢ $5 1h
Tucuman: Carlos Maria Zarate vs Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi SELL Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi 55¢ $5 1h
Tucuman: Carlos Maria Zarate vs Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi SELL Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi 55¢ $566 1h
Tucuman: Carlos Maria Zarate vs Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi BUY Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi 30¢ $110 2h
Tucuman: Carlos Maria Zarate vs Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi BUY Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi 40¢ $0 2h
Tucuman: Carlos Maria Zarate vs Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi BUY Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi 40¢ $2 2h
Tucuman: Carlos Maria Zarate vs Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi BUY Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi 40¢ $38 2h
Tucuman: Carlos Maria Zarate vs Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi BUY Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi 41¢ $75 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-44.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 415 -88.1% -89.2% 8% 7% -34.2%
≤30d 909 -38.5% -44.4% 35% 33% -13.2%
≤90d 909 -38.5% -44.4% 35% 33% -13.2%
all 909 -38.5% -44.4% 35% 33% -13.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover140.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -44.4% 33% -13.2%
10% ← realistic here -49.7% 30% -21.5%
15% -54.6% 25% -29.1%
20% -59.0% 18% -36.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,878.56 · official $2,878.56 (match) · 3500 history records