Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:21:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
43 0x4340…0202 other 85 markets active 1h ago coverage 336d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$597 (-18%) realized −$597 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -59% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -63% what you keep after slip
Net edge-63%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate16%14W / 71L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$39per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Kalshi-fit21%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$236
7 days−$236
14 days−$236
30 days−$236
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 62% −$469
crypto 38% −$296
politics 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-63.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -19.1% -26.8% 38% 31% -28.9%
≤30d 16 -19.1% -26.8% 38% 31% -28.9%
≤90d 16 -19.1% -26.8% 38% 31% -28.9%
all 85 -59.4% -63.3% 16% 14% -31.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -63.3% 14% -31.7%
10% -66.8% 13% -38.2%
15% -70.0% 9% -44.2%
20% -73.0% 7% -49.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 53% · top 2 65% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -23% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -59% · $-wt -26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -72% → late -47% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$70 vs −$25 · ×2.83 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

336d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$597
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)16%
Wins / losses14 / 71
Open positions0
Markets (closed)85 / 85
History coverage336d
Avg bet$39
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit21%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 85 Trades
no open positions (65 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 17 $46 −$45 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 17 $53 −$48 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 17 $108 −$50 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 17 $97 −$5 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 17 $55 +$5 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 17 $105 −$9 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 17 $53 +$16 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 17 $53 +$20 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 17 $61 +$10 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 17 $44 +$95 +213%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 16 $33 +$11 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 16 $128 −$34 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 16 $53 −$42 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 16 $50 −$38 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 16 $97 −$59 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 16 $105 −$63 -60%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from October 3 to October 10, 2025? Oct 10 $99 +$31 +32%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from October 3 to October 10, 2025? Oct 10 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from September 19 to September 26, Sep 26 $23 −$19 -82%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from September 19 to September 26, Sep 25 $38 −$38 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 19 to September 26, Sep 25 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 19 to September 26, Sep 25 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 19 to September 26, Sep 25 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Elon tweet between 520 and 539 times September 5–12? Sep 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 5, 11AM ET Sep 05 $108 −$59 -54%
Will Elon tweet between 480 and 509 times August 29–September 5? Sep 05 $77 +$3 +4%
Will Elon tweet between 510 and 539 times August 29–September 5? Sep 05 $6 −$4 -70%
Will Elon tweet 385–399 times August 29–September 5? Sep 04 $116 +$117 +101%
Will Elon tweet between 540 and 569 times August 29–September 5? Sep 03 $74 −$74 -100%
Will Elon tweet between 660 and 689 times August 29–September 5? Sep 03 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon tweet between 630 and 659 times August 29–September 5? Sep 03 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Elon tweet between 600 and 629 times August 29–September 5? Sep 03 $24 −$23 -100%
Will Elon tweet between 570 and 599 times August 29–September 5? Sep 03 $40 −$39 -100%
Will Elon tweet 355–369 times August 29–September 5? Sep 02 $17 −$12 -74%
Will Elon tweet 370–384 times August 29–September 5? Sep 02 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Elon tweet 325–339 times August 29–September 5? Sep 02 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon tweet 295–309 times August 29–September 5? Sep 02 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon tweet 340–354 times August 29–September 5? Sep 02 $17 −$17 -100%
Will Elon tweet 310–324 times August 29–September 5? Sep 02 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon tweet 400 or more times August 29–September 5? Aug 30 $38 +$38 +100%
Will Elon tweet 180–194 times August 22–August 29? Aug 29 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Elon tweet 195–209 times August 22–August 29? Aug 29 $155 +$60 +39%
Will Elon tweet 225–239 times August 22–August 29? Aug 28 $27 −$27 -100%
Will Elon tweet 210–224 times August 22–August 29? Aug 28 $84 −$84 -100%
Will Elon tweet 285–299 times August 22–August 29? Aug 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon tweet 270–284 times August 22–August 29? Aug 28 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon tweet 255–269 times August 22–August 29? Aug 28 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon tweet 240–254 times August 22–August 29? Aug 28 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Elon tweet 240–254 times? Aug 22 $75 +$21 +27%
Will Elon tweet 255–269 times? Aug 22 $182 −$115 -63%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $46 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET SELL Up 2¢ $4 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $53 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $53 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET SELL Down 14¢ $26 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $55 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $62 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $55 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET SELL Up 24¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $42 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET SELL Up 36¢ $60 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $55 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET SELL Down 17¢ $38 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $53 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET SELL Down 39¢ $58 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET SELL Down 19¢ $69 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $53 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET SELL Down 19¢ $16 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET SELL Down 25¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET SELL Down 49¢ $19 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET SELL Down 58¢ $31 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $53 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $20 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $40 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET SELL Up 83¢ $139 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $44 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET SELL Down 34¢ $45 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $33 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET SELL Up 11¢ $33 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 461 history records