Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T09:08:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
43 0x4343…8dea weather 111 markets active 1h ago coverage 38d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$496 (-6%) realized −$496 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate61%68W / 43L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$70per market
Trades / day7.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$32
7 days−$235
14 days−$186
30 days−$602
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 95% −$516
crypto 5% −$89
world 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-23.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 46 -17.8% -25.7% 63% 26% -13.4%
≤30d 103 -15.4% -23.4% 62% 33% -16.6%
≤90d 111 -14.9% -23.0% 61% 34% -16.6%
all 111 -14.9% -23.0% 61% 34% -16.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.0% 34% -16.6%
10% -30.3% 17% -24.6%
15% -37.1% 14% -31.9%
20% -43.2% 11% -38.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
44% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$28 · ×0.3 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.49 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

38d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$496
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses68 / 43
Open positions0
Markets (closed)111 / 111
History coverage38d
Avg bet$70
Trades / day7.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 111 Trades
no open positions (21 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 21? Jun 21 $100 +$6 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 21? Jun 21 $6 −$3 -55%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C on June 21? Jun 21 $100 +$5 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on June 21? Jun 21 $100 +$9 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on June 21? Jun 21 $346 +$12 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 21? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 21? Jun 21 $457 +$84 +18%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 21? Jun 20 $206 +$23 +11%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 20? Jun 20 $201 +$10 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 20? Jun 20 $192 +$41 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 20? Jun 20 $87 −$61 -70%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 20? Jun 20 $204 −$98 -48%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 20? Jun 20 $26 −$20 -78%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 20? Jun 20 $192 −$138 -72%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 20? Jun 19 $330 +$4 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 18? Jun 19 $21 −$15 -71%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 19? Jun 19 $11 +$15 +142%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 19? Jun 19 $101 +$15 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 19? Jun 19 $154 +$64 +41%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 19? Jun 19 $100 +$20 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 19? Jun 19 $40 +$6 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 19? Jun 19 $31 −$18 -59%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 19? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -99%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 19? Jun 19 $149 −$51 -34%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 19? Jun 19 $100 +$8 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 19? Jun 19 $100 +$3 +3%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 19? Jun 18 $40 +$1 +3%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on June 18? Jun 18 $201 +$12 +6%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 19? Jun 18 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 18? Jun 18 $95 −$94 -99%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 18? Jun 18 $10 +$3 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 18? Jun 18 $201 +$26 +13%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 18? Jun 17 $40 +$12 +30%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 17? Jun 17 $50 +$4 +8%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 17? Jun 17 $100 +$6 +6%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -87%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $251 −$92 -36%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $61 −$61 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 15? Jun 16 $196 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 15? Jun 15 $101 +$15 +15%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 15? Jun 14 $100 +$5 +5%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $286 +$6 +2%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $132 +$4 +3%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -99%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 14? Jun 14 $100 +$4 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $100 +$5 +5%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 13? Jun 13 $200 +$4 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 13? Jun 13 $258 +$12 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 13 $11 +$1 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 21? SELL Yes 100¢ $101 45m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 21? SELL Yes 99¢ $5 54m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 21? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C on June 21? SELL No 100¢ $11 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on June 21? SELL Yes 100¢ $110 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C on June 21? SELL No 100¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on June 21? SELL No 100¢ $204 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on June 21? SELL No 100¢ $95 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on June 21? SELL No 100¢ $60 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C on June 21? SELL No 100¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C on June 21? SELL No 100¢ $50 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C on June 21? SELL No 100¢ $43 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 21? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on June 21? BUY No 95¢ $45 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on June 21? BUY Yes 91¢ $100 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 21? BUY Yes 94¢ $100 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on June 21? BUY No 96¢ $100 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C on June 21? BUY No 95¢ $100 2h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 21? SELL Yes 68¢ $3 2h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 21? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on June 21? BUY No 96¢ $200 2h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 21? BUY Yes 47¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 21? BUY Yes 57¢ $5 3h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 21? SELL No 100¢ $135 3h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 21? SELL No 100¢ $137 3h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 21? SELL No 100¢ $81 3h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 21? SELL No 100¢ $14 3h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 21? SELL No 100¢ $9 3h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 21? SELL No 100¢ $10 3h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 21? SELL No 99¢ $154 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 327 history records