Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T20:38:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
43 0x4343…b3a2 other 32 markets active 1h ago coverage 405d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$278 (-28%) realized −$278 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate36%10W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit38%portable
Net worth$7now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$9
14 days−$9
30 days−$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 57% −$51
sports 23% −$202
crypto 20% −$27
economics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-28.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +10.7% +0.2% 38% 38% -27.0%
≤30d 8 +10.7% +0.2% 38% 38% -27.0%
≤90d 8 +10.7% +0.2% 38% 38% -27.0%
all 28 -20.4% -28.0% 36% 36% -36.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.0% 36% -36.2%
10% -34.9% 29% -42.3%
15% -41.2% 25% -47.9%
20% -46.9% 18% -53.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -30% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -29% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$25 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.37 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

405d coverage
Net worth$7
Realized−$278
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses10 / 18
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)28 / 32
History coverage405d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit38%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 28 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 Egypt? Yes 13¢ 28¢ $2 $4 +$2 (+119%)
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 1 Egypt? Yes 19¢ 38¢ $1 $3 +$1 (+103%)
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 0 Egypt? Yes 14¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 0 Egypt? Yes 14¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $19 −$19 -100%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -98%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 1 Switzerland? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 3 Switzerland? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $15 +$11 +70%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $5 +$2 +42%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 South Africa? Jun 11 $1 +$5 +474%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 South Africa? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Andrew Tate vs. Chase Demoor Dec 20 $189 −$189 -100%
Will Anthony Joshua win his boxing match against Jake Paul? Dec 20 $175 +$24 +14%
Will Manchester United win the UEFA Europa League? May 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Europa League Final May 21 $52 −$4 -8%
Will Tottenham Hotspur win the UEFA Europa League? May 21 $46 −$46 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $105K and $106K on May 20 at 5 PM May 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $106K on May 20 at 5 PM ET? May 21 $95 −$95 -100%
ETH/BTC Up or Down this week? May 20 $1 +$3 +233%
Will Newcastle win on 2025-05-18? May 20 $105 +$35 +33%
Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 Italian Grand Prix? May 18 $28 −$28 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 14? May 18 $48 +$18 +38%
Will Barcelona beat Real Madrid? May 12 $99 +$20 +20%
Ethereum above $1,800 on May 9? May 09 $8 +$9 +108%
Bitcoin above $97,000 on May 9? May 09 $41 +$42 +102%
Will Jerome Powell say "Trump" during the May meeting? May 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Champions League: Arsenal vs. PSG (To Advance) May 07 $13 −$13 -97%
Will Arsenal win on 2025-05-07? May 07 $1 −$1 -90%
Will Paris Saint Germain vs. Arsenal end in a draw? May 07 $2 $0 -19%
Champions League: Inter Milan vs. Barcelona (To Advance) May 07 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-05-06? May 06 $30 −$30 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 1 Egypt? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 Egypt? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 1h
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 0 Egypt? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 1h
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 0 Egypt? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $19 2d
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 2d
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 1 Switzerland? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 2d
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 3 Switzerland? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 2d
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 2d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 58¢ $15 3d
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 4d
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 4d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $5 4d
Andrew Tate vs. Chase Demoor BUY Tate 83¢ $189 177d
Will Anthony Joshua win his boxing match against Jake Paul? BUY Yes 88¢ $175 178d
Will Manchester United win the UEFA Europa League? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 389d
Europa League Final BUY Man United 40¢ $4 390d
Will Tottenham Hotspur win the UEFA Europa League? BUY No 65¢ $43 390d
Will Tottenham Hotspur win the UEFA Europa League? BUY No 65¢ $3 390d
Europa League Final SELL Tottenham 45¢ $50 390d
Europa League Final BUY Tottenham 43¢ $48 390d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $105K and $106K on May 20 at 5 PM BUY Yes 11¢ $4 391d
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $106K on May 20 at 5 PM ET? BUY No 12¢ $5 391d
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $106K on May 20 at 5 PM ET? BUY No 15¢ $20 391d
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $106K on May 20 at 5 PM ET? BUY No 78¢ $70 391d
Will Newcastle win on 2025-05-18? BUY No 75¢ $105 393d
Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 Italian Grand Prix? SELL No $0 393d
Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 Italian Grand Prix? BUY No 28¢ $8 393d
Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 Italian Grand Prix? BUY No 50¢ $20 393d
ETH/BTC Up or Down this week? BUY Down 30¢ $0 395d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7.07 · official $3.82 · 63 history records