Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T18:43:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
43 0x4348…3c0f other 111 markets active 2h ago coverage 131d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$37 (-0%) realized −$37 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate12%13W / 97L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$155per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 55% −$10
politics 24% −$4
sports 11% −$22
tech 4% −$1
economics 4% −$1
crypto 2% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-14.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 5 -0.0% -9.6% 40% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 68 -0.1% -9.6% 6% 0% -9.6%
all 110 -5.6% -14.6% 12% 4% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.6% 4% -9.7%
10% -22.7% 4% -18.4%
15% -30.2% 1% -26.2%
20% -37.1% 1% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 61% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
69% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$1 · ×4.07 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.55 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

131d coverage
Net worth$30
Realized−$37
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses13 / 97
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)110 / 111
History coverage131d
Avg bet$155
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 110 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Evan Pettus be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elaine Culotti win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 18 $18 $0 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 09 $17 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 07 $147 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $170 in April? May 24 $26 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in April? May 24 $26 $0 +0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 19 $126 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $146 $0 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $298 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e Apr 18 $420 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 18 $156 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 17 $148 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $143 $0 -0%
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 16 $334 $0 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 16 $498 $0 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $165 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $176 $0 -0%
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 15 $480 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 15 $172 $0 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 15 $155 $0 -0%
Will San Marino win Eurovision 2026? Apr 14 $303 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 14 $122 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 14 $176 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 13 $153 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me Apr 13 $131 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 13 $293 $0 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 13 $130 $0 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 12 $124 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $150 $0 -0%
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Apr 12 $129 $0 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 10 $160 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 08 $135 $0 -0%
Will Na Kyung-won win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 08 $167 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 08 $184 $0 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 07 $323 $0 -0%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 07 $126 $0 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 06 $146 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 06 $421 $0 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 06 $131 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 06 $465 $0 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 05 $155 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 05 $178 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 04 $162 $0 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 04 $161 $0 -0%
Will Christopher Waller be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 03 $155 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 02 $326 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 01 $168 $0 -0%
Will Solana reach $100 in March? Apr 01 $4 $0 +0%
Will Park Yong-jin win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 01 $168 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 01 $294 $0 -0%
Based FDV above $4B one day after launch? Apr 01 $12 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Evan Pettus be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $30 1h
Will Elaine Culotti win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $18 44h
Will Elaine Culotti win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $18 11d
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $17 11d
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $17 12d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $147 12d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $147 27d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in April? BUY No 100¢ $26 51d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $170 in April? BUY No 100¢ $26 52d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $126 62d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $126 62d
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $146 62d
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $146 62d
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $153 63d
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $153 63d
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e SELL No 100¢ $164 63d
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e BUY No 100¢ $164 63d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $156 63d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $156 63d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $148 64d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $148 64d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $143 64d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $143 64d
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $166 64d
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $166 64d
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $162 64d
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $162 65d
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $145 65d
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $145 65d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $165 65d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.98 · official $29.98 (match) · 312 history records