Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T16:12:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

43
0x434e…7454
sports · 92 markets active 1h ago
4.5score
+$822 +10%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$761 · open +$62
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$132
Realized+$761
Unrealized+$62
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses38 / 53
Est. fees paid−$61
Open positions1
Markets (closed)91 / 92
History coverage233d
Avg bet$88
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown47%
Kalshi-fit80%
Chart Positions 1 History 91 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$177
7 days+$758
14 days+$758
30 days+$753
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BetBoom Team 28¢ 52¢ $70 $132 +$62 (+87%)
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 - Map 2 Winner BIG 7¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: B8 vs GamerLegion - Map 2 Winner B8 57¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Rio Group A G2 45¢ 0¢ $205 $0 −$205 (-100%)
Will Khamzat Chimaev win by KO or TKO? Yes 19¢ 0¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-100%)
Joe Kent charged by April 30? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $102 −$49 -48%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $187 +$63 +34%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $312 +$79 +26%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $742 +$245 +33%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $121 −$2 -2%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $173 −$160 -93%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $90 +$90 +100%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $5 −$5 -97%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $424 +$46 +11%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $308 +$91 +30%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 09 $156 +$44 +28%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $33 −$28 -85%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $101 −$49 -48%
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-0 be the exact series outcome? Jun 09 $16 −$3 -18%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $121 +$4 +4%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $213 +$47 +22%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 08 $201 +$40 +20%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 08 $184 +$113 +61%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $89 +$19 +21%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $235 +$12 +5%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 07 $52 +$48 +93%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 07 $384 +$102 +27%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 07 $309 +$35 +11%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs GamerLegion - Map 2 Winner Jun 07 $101 −$100 -99%
Counter-Strike: FlyQuest vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $248 +$95 +38%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $191 −$95 -50%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $375 +$75 +20%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? May 29 $30 −$5 -16%
Will Khamzat Chimaev win by KO or TKO? May 10 $13 −$13 -98%
UFC 328: Tatsuro Taira vs. Joshua Van (Flyweight, Main Card) May 10 $20 −$14 -69%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FaZe (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Playoffs May 02 $117 +$291 +250%
Will Cooper Flagg win the 2025–26 NBA Rookie of the Year award? May 01 $11 +$9 +79%
Will Matt Fitzpatrick win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Bryson Dechambeau win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Rio Group A Apr 14 $208 −$205 -98%
Joe Kent charged by April 30? Apr 07 $18 −$2 -12%
Will Michigan win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Apr 07 $21 +$79 +376%
Will Arizona win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Apr 06 $22 −$22 -100%
Will Duke win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Apr 06 $34 −$34 -100%
Will St. John's win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Houston win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 28 $30 −$30 -100%
Illinois Fighting Illini vs. Houston Cougars Mar 28 $51 −$51 -100%
Minnesota Twins vs. Baltimore Orioles Mar 28 $4 −$4 -100%
Nebraska Cornhuskers vs. Iowa Hawkeyes Mar 26 $24 −$10 -42%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by March 31? Mar 26 $1 −$1 -62%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on March 23? Mar 25 $30 −$30 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs FURIA (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Gro Mar 23 $13 −$8 -66%
UCLA Bruins vs. Connecticut Huskies Mar 23 $68 +$32 +46%
Texas Tech Red Raiders vs. Alabama Crimson Tide Mar 23 $51 −$51 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 90% +$758
other 7% +$137
crypto 1% +$1
politics 1% −$24
finance 0% −$30
culture 0% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY BetBoom Team 19¢ $10 31m
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY BetBoom Team 22¢ $11 33m
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner SELL BetBoom Team 26¢ $53 33m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner SELL Natus Vincere 100¢ $251 51m
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 48¢ $102 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 83¢ $126 1h
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL G2 99¢ $230 1h
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL G2 90¢ $69 1h
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 69¢ $101 2h
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 61¢ $101 2h
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL FUT Esports 37¢ $73 2h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 61¢ $62 2h
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 42¢ $21 2h
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL FUT Esports 40¢ $20 2h
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 32¢ $26 3h
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 36¢ $7 3h
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 54¢ $55 4h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL FURIA 100¢ $493 4h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL FURIA 100¢ $493 4h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FURIA 80¢ $119 5h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag SELL Natus Vincere 69¢ $119 5h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FURIA 73¢ $27 5h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FURIA 71¢ $72 5h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FURIA 68¢ $101 5h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FURIA 55¢ $20 5h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner SELL FURIA 3¢ $13 5h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 12¢ $10 5h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FURIA 62¢ $101 5h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 18¢ $10 5h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 31¢ $10 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-17.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 +1.5% -8.2% 67% 59% +3.0%
≤30d 28 +0.8% -8.8% 64% 57% +2.9%
≤90d 69 -16.4% -24.4% 43% 41% -0.4%
all 91 -8.8% -17.5% 42% 40% -0.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.5% 40% -0.9%
10% -25.4% 31% -10.4%
15% -32.6% 24% -19.0%
20% -39.2% 19% -27.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $132.05 · official $59.11 · 346 history records