Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T19:17:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
43 0x434f…3866 crypto 222 markets active 1h ago coverage 105d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$117 (-3%) realized −$117 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate60%134W / 88L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day4.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$94
7 days−$97
14 days−$116
30 days−$115
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$164
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-13.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -10.9% -19.4% 55% 45% -35.0%
≤30d 59 -2.4% -11.7% 54% 44% -29.9%
≤90d 152 -5.2% -14.3% 63% 37% -15.5%
all 222 -4.0% -13.1% 60% 42% -14.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.1% 42% -14.0%
10% -21.4% 35% -22.2%
15% -29.0% 31% -29.7%
20% -36.0% 23% -36.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$6 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

105d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$117
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses134 / 88
Open positions0
Markets (closed)222 / 222
History coverage105d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day4.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 222 Trades
no open positions (54 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 24 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 24 $104 −$104 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 24 $5 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 24 $100 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 24 $5 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 24 $96 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 24 $1 +$1 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 23 $2 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 23 $3 +$1 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 23 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 23 $2 +$2 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 23 $17 −$2 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 23 $2 +$2 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 23 $2 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 23 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 23 $2 +$2 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8AM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1PM ET Jun 18 $4 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12PM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$7 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11AM ET Jun 17 $22 −$21 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10AM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$2 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1PM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10AM ET Jun 14 $7 −$1 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11AM ET Jun 13 $4 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$1 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +137%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11AM ET Jun 12 $37 +$17 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3AM ET Jun 12 $6 −$3 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +130%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2PM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 -7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $104 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $100 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $95 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET SELL Up 5¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $2 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $4 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $3 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $1 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $2 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $18 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $15 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $2 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET SELL Down 97¢ $4 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $2 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET SELL Up 65¢ $2 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $2 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $1 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $2 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $6 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET SELL Up 18¢ $4 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 565 history records