Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T08:02:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

43
0x4351…d615
crypto · 612 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$127 -6%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$127 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized−$127
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses278 / 334
Open positions0
Markets (closed)612 / 612
History coverage66d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day13.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 0 History 612 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$262
7 days−$262
14 days−$265
30 days−$272
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Up 10¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Down 65¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Up 38¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Down 76¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Down 29¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Down 74¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Up 41¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Up 61¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Down 41¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Down 33¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Up 47¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Up 76¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Up 19¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Up 5¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Down 45¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Down 43¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Up 43¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Down 33¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Down 34¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Up 64¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Up 41¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Down 33¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 13 $3 +$2 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 13 $3 +$2 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 13 $3 +$2 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 13 $7 −$6 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 13 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 13 $7 +$6 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 13 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 13 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 13 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 13 $4 +$3 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 13 $4 +$3 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% −$127
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $3 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $4 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $4 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $4 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $4 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $3 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $5 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $4 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $4 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $4 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $5 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $5 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $5 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $4 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $3 25d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $0 25d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $3 25d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $4 27d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-16.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 69 -85.1% -86.5% 9% 9% -87.7%
≤30d 81 -77.6% -79.7% 15% 14% -80.8%
≤90d 612 -8.0% -16.8% 45% 41% -15.3%
all 612 -8.0% -16.8% 45% 41% -15.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover13.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.8% 41% -15.3%
10% -24.7% 37% -23.4%
15% -32.0% 31% -30.8%
20% -38.7% 24% -37.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1353 history records