Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T22:54:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

43
0x4353…0ef1
sports · 9 markets active 2h ago
2.0score
−$97 -49%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$96 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist⚠ Small sample
Net worth$5
Realized−$96
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses3 / 4
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)7 / 9
History coverage15d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%
Chart Positions 1 History 7 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days+$5
14 days+$5
30 days−$96
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5 $5 −$0 (-6%)
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? Yes 42¢ $102 $0 −$102 (-100%)
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Yes 32¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Jonathan David: 1+ goals Yes 36¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) South Africa 61¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 12 $23 +$8 +34%
Jonathan David: 1+ goals Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $8 +$7 +83%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -98%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $15 −$15 -99%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 11 $19 +$10 +50%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 28 $103 −$102 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 56% −$104
sports 44% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 AND Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY 56¢ $19 1h
Spread: Canada (-1.5) SELL Bosnia and Herzegovina 100¢ $31 1h
Jonathan David: 1+ goals BUY Yes 36¢ $2 4h
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Bosnia and Herzegovina 74¢ $23 4h
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $2 25h
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 54¢ $8 25h
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) BUY South Africa 61¢ $15 37h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $5 2d
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 66¢ $19 2d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 42¢ $103 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-39.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -22.2% -29.6% 50% 50% -2.8%
≤30d 7 -33.3% -39.7% 43% 43% -60.5%
≤90d 7 -33.3% -39.7% 43% 43% -60.5%
all 7 -33.3% -39.7% 43% 43% -60.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -39.7% 43% -60.5%
10% -45.5% 43% -64.3%
15% -50.7% 29% -67.7%
20% -55.6% 14% -70.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.72 · official $23.63 · 12 history records