Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T11:47:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
43 0x4353…f784 sports 37 markets active 2h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$103 (-28%) realized −$102 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate35%11W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day19.6pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$48now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 56% −$53
other 29% −$28
crypto 16% −$24
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-25.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 -17.5% -25.4% 35% 35% -45.3%
≤30d 31 -17.5% -25.4% 35% 35% -45.3%
≤90d 31 -17.5% -25.4% 35% 35% -45.3%
all 31 -17.5% -25.4% 35% 35% -45.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.4% 35% -45.3%
10% -32.5% 35% -50.5%
15% -39.1% 35% -55.3%
20% -45.0% 32% -59.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -40% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -40% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -50% → late +13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$9 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.43 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$48
Realized−$102
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses11 / 20
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions3
Markets (closed)31 / 37
History coverage2d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day19.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 31 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Norway (-3.5) Norway 18¢ 18¢ $23 $22 −$1 (-3%)
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Norway 36¢ 36¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
France leading at halftime? Yes 50¢ 50¢ $11 $11 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 1 Uruguay? Jun 16 $10 +$4 +42%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $10 +$11 +105%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $3 +$3 +120%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $7 −$4 -55%
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 0 Egypt? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $41 −$40 -99%
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 15 $6 +$17 +276%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 +$12 +232%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 14 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 14 $15 −$2 -13%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $10 +$10 +98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $10 +$10 +97%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 2nd Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $2 +$1 +65%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$3 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$5 +93%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Norway (-3.5) BUY Norway 18¢ $23 1h
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Norway 36¢ $15 1h
France leading at halftime? BUY Yes 50¢ $11 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY 55¢ $34 2h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Under 40¢ $10 11h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 1 Uruguay? BUY Yes 70¢ $10 11h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) SELL Belgium 17¢ $3 16h
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners BUY Under 32¢ $10 17h
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 0 Egypt? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 17h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 45¢ $3 18h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 36¢ $7 28h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 28h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 48¢ $10 28h
Spread: Norway (-2.5) AND Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Por BUY 2¢ $5 28h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 55¢ $41 30h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 32¢ $2 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $5 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $5 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $5 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $5 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 37h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 28¢ $3 37h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 50¢ $10 37h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Under 35¢ $10 39h
Germany vs. Curaçao: 2nd Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners BUY Under 60¢ $2 41h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Under 49¢ $20 42h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 47¢ $10 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $47.93 · official $80.99 · 60 history records