Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:46:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
43 0x4353…090c crypto 412 markets active 2d ago coverage 74d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$15 (-1%) realized −$15 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate57%235W / 176L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day17.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 90% −$24
other 10% −$31
world 0% +$2
sports 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-19.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.9% -10.4% 57% 57% -30.3%
≤30d 11 -2.9% -12.2% 55% 55% -25.6%
≤90d 411 -11.3% -19.7% 57% 45% -12.5%
all 411 -11.3% -19.7% 57% 45% -12.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.7% 45% -12.5%
10% -27.4% 28% -20.8%
15% -34.4% 18% -28.5%
20% -40.8% 12% -35.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

74d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$15
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses235 / 176
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)411 / 412
History coverage74d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day17.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 411 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 57¢ 52¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +97%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +57%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +97%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +42%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-27? May 31 $1 +$1 +101%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-20? May 21 $1 +$1 +73%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-05-17? May 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Everton FC win on 2026-05-17? May 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $1 $0 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET May 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET May 16 $2 +$1 +65%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $1 +$1 +65%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-09? May 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-05-08? May 10 $1 +$1 +52%
Will RC Strasbourg Alsace win on 2026-05-07? May 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? May 07 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-05? May 05 $3 +$2 +59%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $1 +$1 +73%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $2 −$2 -100%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $1 +$1 +101%
Will Girona FC win on 2026-05-01? May 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Nottingham Forest FC vs. Aston Villa FC end in a draw? May 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Will FK Shakhtar Donetsk win on 2026-04-30? May 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-04-30? Apr 30 $1 +$1 +113%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-28? Apr 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-29? Apr 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Madrid Open: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Casper Ruud Apr 28 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Apr 28 $2 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Apr 28 $1 $0 +12%
Will Cagliari Calcio win on 2026-04-27? Apr 28 $1 $0 +38%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-04-27? Apr 28 $1 +$1 +83%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-04-26? Apr 27 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Atalanta BC win on 2026-04-27? Apr 27 $1 −$1 -82%
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 26 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Apr 26 $1 $0 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Apr 26 $1 +$2 +160%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Apr 26 $1 +$1 +131%
Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2026-04-26? Apr 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Apr 26 $2 $0 -23%
Will FC Lorient win on 2026-04-26? Apr 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Apr 26 $2 −$1 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Apr 26 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Apr 26 $1 +$1 +58%
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-04-26? Apr 26 $2 +$1 +39%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $1 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $1 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 50¢ $1 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $1 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $1 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 60¢ $1 5d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 49¢ $1 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $1 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 50¢ $1 6d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $1 6d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $1 6d
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-27? BUY Yes 49¢ $1 21d
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-05-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $1 31d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $2 32d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $1 32d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET SELL Down 66¢ $3 32d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $1 32d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $1 32d
Will Everton FC win on 2026-05-17? BUY Yes 53¢ $1 32d
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-05-16? BUY Yes 75¢ $1 32d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-10? BUY Yes 60¢ $1 38d
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $1 38d
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-10? BUY Yes 34¢ $1 38d
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-10? BUY Yes 65¢ $1 38d
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-05-08? BUY Yes 65¢ $1 41d
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-09? BUY Yes 53¢ $1 41d
Will RC Strasbourg Alsace win on 2026-05-07? BUY Yes 50¢ $1 41d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-05? SELL Yes 100¢ $5 42d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-05? BUY Yes 62¢ $2 43d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? BUY Yes 58¢ $1 43d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.92 · official $0.90 (match) · 1569 history records