Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T10:16:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
43 0x4355…1b4a crypto 17 markets active 6d ago coverage 26d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$18 (-24%) realized −$12 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -64% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -68% what you keep after slip
Net edge-68%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate6%1W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 26d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 67% −$14
other 33% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-67.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -64.2% -67.6% 6% 6% -47.3%
≤30d 16 -64.2% -67.6% 6% 6% -47.3%
≤90d 16 -64.2% -67.6% 6% 6% -47.3%
all 16 -64.2% -67.6% 6% 6% -47.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -67.6% 6% -47.3%
10% -70.7% 6% -52.4%
15% -73.6% 6% -57.0%
20% -76.1% 0% -61.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -43% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -64% · $-wt -43% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -40% → late -89% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.32 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.02 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

26d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$12
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses1 / 15
Open positions1
Markets (closed)16 / 17
History coverage26d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 16 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Hantavirus lab leak confirmed by June 30? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $8 $2 −$6 (-73%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$1 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$1 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 10 $6 −$1 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 10 $6 −$1 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 10 $3 −$1 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$1 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$2 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 10 $4 −$1 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 10 $3 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 -5%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Jun 10 $16 −$4 -26%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $1 5d
Hantavirus lab leak confirmed by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET SELL Up 90¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET SELL Up 92¢ $6 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET SELL Up 84¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET SELL Down 97¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET SELL Up 51¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET SELL Down 33¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET SELL Up 5¢ $0 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $1 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.13 · official $2.13 (match) · 63 history records